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| 400 parts per million ... |
Those Albertans who
have voted for Harper's Conservatives in election after election must be
starting to wonder whether Stephen Harper and his Cabinet are the best choice
for their main industry: oil.
They should start to
worry, because the Harper Tories are displaying yet again their incompetence
when it comes to the really important issues facing Canada. They are fine for
scurrying around, giving out little slices of taxpayers' money to selected
micromarkets, but when it comes to the really important things, they are sadly
wanting.
The Meltdown Debacle
Take the financial
meltdown of 2007-2008.
Remember how Harper and his Cabinet were whistling past
the graveyard, blissfully unaware of the massive threat to our civilization's
financial underpinnings posed by the bank meltdown, until the opposition
parties forced them to pay attention by signing the Coalition Accord.
Now Harper and his
Cabinet have once more shown their inability to understand the really critical
drivers of our economy, and to play a strategic role in protecting it, and
advancing it with carefully selected government actions.
Simpson's Take on Harper's Ineptitude
The biggest proponents of bitumen oil – the
Alberta Progressive Conservatives, the Harper Conservatives and the oil
industry itself – have, in some respects, been the authors of these troubles.
They could have acted differently and possibly made things easier. But a
different course of action would have required a different strategic
understanding...
The two governments
insisted that critics were ill-informed when they said bitumen is dirtier than
conventional oil. They swallowed the canard that bitumen oil is somehow
“ethical” because Canada has better standards than Iran and Venezuela –
standing ethics on its head by defining our practices against the worst, rather
than the notional idea of the best.
These self-comforting
but delusional starting points led to trouble. Instead of analyzing how to deal
with criticism constructively, the governments decided it was to be denounced...
Instead, the governments, presumably with
the industry’s blessing, acted as if salesmanship rather than statesmanship
would suffice. As such, they have contributed to this sea of troubles.
When the nation needed statesmen, Harper
played to his major strength, and gave it salesmen.
And salesmen just don't have the calibre to
fix the problem facing Canada's dirty tar sands.
Two
fold attack on Canada's energy industry
Our major export industry is under attack
from two directions: those who want to use it as an example and stop or reduce
the use of fossil fuels, and those who believe that the greenhouse gas
emissions from fossil fuels pose an imminent danger to our earth and must be
reduced.
Mark Jaccard from Simon Fraser is in the second
camp, and is off
to Europe to persuade the European Union to stick to their guns and
penalize Canada's tar sand oil as unduly noxious:
One of Canada’s top
environmental economists has a stark warning for the country’s oil sands
producers: Find ways to dramatically cut carbon emissions or risk becoming the
buggy-whip producers of the 21st century.
Simon Fraser economist
Mark Jaccard has worked with governments in British Columbia, California and
even Ottawa to fashion climate policies.
But on Thursday, he said the
federal government and the oil industry are embarked on a high-risk path that
could leave billions of dollars in stranded assets, including pipelines
like TransCanada Corp.’s proposed Keystone XL...
Governments around the
world will eventually move to reduce emissions from fossil fuels, he said,
meaning lower demand for gasoline in transportation and lower prices for crude,
as well as more pressure for producers to virtually eliminate the release of
carbon dioxide from their production methods. That will create survival
issues for high-cost producers like those in the oil sands.
“It really depends on
your ability to innovate,” he said.
His comments come at a
sensitive time for the government on the energy file. Prime Minister Stephen
Harper is heading to New York next week to press the case for approval of
Keystone, and Natural Resources Minister Joe Oliver has been touring European capitals
this week, making the argument in favour of developing the resource, one of the
largest crude oil reserves in the world.
Dr. Jaccard joined a
dozen scientists and researchers Thursday in releasing a letter to Mr. Oliver,
arguing that Ottawa’s support for oil sands expansion and the pipelines
needed to carry the crude to market is inconsistent with the stated goal of the
Harper government and other G20 countries to prevent temperatures from rising
more than 2 degrees Celsius. The economist is travelling to Europe on
Friday with former NASA scientist James Hansen to rebut the arguments that Mr.
Oliver made during his week-long tour.
Voters in Alberta should pay attention to
the passages above that I have underlined. They spell out an existential threat
to the very heart of Alberta's and Saskatchewan's heavy oil industry.
The
Measurements of Evil
The spat right now between Harper's
government and the EU revolves around a simple question: Is the heavy oil from
Canada's tar sands worse than the oil that can be obtained from other sources,
because the whole process of manufacture (from well to wheel, as it is put) and
refinement results in more greenhouse gas emissions.
There are several ways to calculate the
all-in greenhouse gas emissions of refined crude from tar sands and shale deposits, depending on what you include
in the calculation.
Here's a diagram of the Congressional
Research Service's from well to wheel factors:
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| From Well to Wheel |
Canada's asleep-at-the-switch Harper
government is arguing that the calculation should be made for all processes involved, including
transportation. Our heavy oil comes out a bit better if we do that, as this
article in the Globe & Mail spells out:
Transportation is a hot point in the carbon
debate because oil sands supporters want Alberta's production compared to other
oil after transportation is taken into account. Shipping oil by tanker, for example,
jacks up emissions. Oil used in France may have originated in Africa. Oil
burned in Colorado may have been extracted in Venezuela. Oil sands proponents
argue the emissions tied to shipping crude to refineries and then to consumers
must be considered when comparing emissions.
Pipeline companies also use the
argument when lobbying for support of their proposals and Alberta's oil sands.
Trans- Canada, citing the U.S. Department of State, notes the Keystone XL oil
sands pipeline will offset as many as 200 ocean tankers a year. This equates to
lowering greenhouse gas emissions by 19 million tonnes. Using trains to move
oil, TransCanada notes, produces three times as much greenhouse gas as
pipelines.
The
Failure of the Harper Government
This strategic challenge facing our oil
industry is not new, and was easily predictable given events over the past
decade or more.
However, Canada's lack of preparedness for
this major threat is directly the result of the Harper government's inability –
or wilful blindness – to manage our country's economy properly.
We as voters expect our federal government
to be looking out for our country, by keeping their heads up, and preparing for
challenges. Yet the Harper government seems genetically incapable of doing any
really significant long range planning.
I believe part of the reason for this blind
spot in the Harper government arises from the fact that as a political party –
and now as a government – the Harper Conservatives have adopted lock, stock and
barrel the Tea Party DNA and the Tea Party worldview.
Harper and his Cabinet ministers do not
seem to believe that our federal government has a significant role to play in
protecting our economy.
Witness the inability to act duting the financial
meltdown. And witness also their dangerous reduction of the revenues of the
federal government (through the reduction in the sales tax rate, and other tax
reductions). Instead of properly managing the country during good times so that
it better placed to weather bad times, Harper and his Cabinet seem to lack the
ability to think beyond the next few months.
Steps
an Efficient Canadian Government could have taken
Could Harper have done something different
to foresee the attack on our oil industry, and to prevent or reduce it?
Simpson gives some examples in his article
of steps the Harper government could
have taken, but did not.
The pressure on fossil fuels due to their
spewing noxious greenhouse gases into our common atmosphere is not a surprise.
It has been building for a long time, is scientifically based, and will not go
away, for the simple reason that our earth is indeed in peril.
If Harper and his party were not wedded to
a policy of inaction (and reduction of the federal government), Canada could
have played a major role in organizing worldwide acceptance of the threat posed
by global warming.
We could have lead the charge, along with the EU, to verify
the scientific findings of increasing carbon dioxide (now close to 400
parts per million), and to encourage states and citizens of all states, to
take meaningful steps to reduce our consumption of fossil fuel energy and switch
to other less harmful energy sources. I deal with the problem posed by the 400 parts per million in our book about global warming, Obelisk Seven.
But the Harper government does not believe
in a proactive government, so we did none of these things.
We could have thought through the strategic
implications of the GHG emissions from our oil sands, and planned to deal with
the easily foreseen problems that we now face, if our government believed that
it was their role to be proactive rather than simply reactive.
As a country, we could have had a vigorous
debate over the role of our tar sands, and the importance of our oil industry
to the country as a whole. We could have adopted policies which internally gave
the various stakeholders a more meaningful role in and stake in that industry (including a fair sharing of
the profits from exporting up to 3 million tons of bitumen oil for other
nations to refine and use as fuel).
And we could have lead the world in
massive, significant and effective steps to reduce GHG emissions through energy
reduction methods in all spheres, both private and public.
We could also have lead in the proper
measurement of the GHG emissions of various energy sources, and in the world
adopting a common set of measurements so that as citizens of the world we could
discuss from a shared base the price we pay for our alternative energy sources.
This would have allowed a Canadian
government that focused on strategic issues (and not just petty politicking),
to have adopted a measurement system that measured emissions from the well to
the wheel, with scientifically verifiable means adopted to moniter emissions.
Instead we have Harper and his Cabinet
acting as salesmen, selling what many view as snake oil, and demonizing those
who oppose them.
What a mess!
Let's fix things up come
the 2015 election, starting with a new government to replace the tired, myopic
and inept Harper government.