The Tories have launched a series of ads on television which refer to a website and which contain printed extracts of past writings or sayings of Michael Ignatieff, and also actual videos of past interviews during the time he was in the USA.
In particular, one video has Ignatieff talking to Americans and calling himself an American.
Liberals are rightly disconcerted by the advertisements, because the Tories effectively using Ignatieff's own words against him, and because they remember how the Tories managed to hammer into the ordinary conversation of ordinary Canadians the themes they chose with respect to Dion.
That is clearly what Harper wants to happen with Ignatieff, and judging by the timing of the television ads and the press and media reports, he has made a good beginning.
The problem of Liberals is that they have made a mistake in labelling the new Tory ads. Both in blogs, in speeches and in articles by the media, the Tory ads are called 'attack ads'. The Tories are assailed for launching 'attack ads'.
The difficulty with the Liberal label is that it misses the thrust of Tory policy.
Using Ignatieff's own words against him is fair game. Drawing erroneous conclusions from his own statements should be exposed and attacked. Drawing possibly correct conclusions from his own statements is less open to effective attack.
And, above all, attack ads are an accepted and acceptable part of political discourse in 2009 in Canada. Liberals themselves will use attack ads against the Tories, the Bloc and the NDP, both before and during formal election periods.
We, as Liberals, must understand what the Harper Tories are doing with their Ignatieff ads. They have started their election campaign, expecting an election some time this year, or perhaps next year. And the ads are simply one of the two election strategies they are now (and will continue to) adopting.
Harper has been enormously successful in defeating two Liberal leaders in the past few years by fighting on two fronts.
They have successfully managed to convince the Canadian voters that the major fight in the elections is on the issue of leadership, and that Harper is the better leader. And, at the same time, they have engaged in micro-targeting, offering trinkets to a wide range of carefully selected voters, and basically avoiding 'grand theme' policies.
Harper has trounced Martin and Dion in the leadership stakes. The Tories managed this because they successfully framed Martin and Dion as ineffective leaders of their own party, and of the country. And having used this frame, they have also successfully framed Harper as an effective, decisive leader.
The new 'attack ads' (as the Liberals are calling them) or, more precisely, 'framing ads' (which is what they are) launched against Ignatieff are part of the same framing strategy, and are designed to set up in the minds of Canadians certain troubling questions about the validity of Ignatieff's quest to become prime minister. Having done this, the Tory attack will then move on to contrast the now-framed Ignatieff with the decisive, positive Harper figure, and so turn the next election into a question about the two leaders and not about the policies of the two parties.
Ignatieff is a relatively blank slate to most Canadians (as several polls have shown). And so the Tories have a wonderful opportunity to colour him in, with crayons of their own choosing. If they wish, they can smudge his outlines a bit, move the picture a bit to the left or right, and make him seem to be what they want in this pre-campaign part of the election.
And how should Liberals respond to this?
Firstly, by choosing their own battlegrounds, and forcing Harper and the Tories to fight on them. And the main attack should be against the Tory strategy of making the next election a quasi-presidential one of choosing a 'Canadian president', rather than an election of political parties with differing policies.
Liberals need to add colour to the blank Ignatieff slate.
And the best colour they can use is one which speaks to his positives as a person, and which moves the battle to policies and not just a choice between two men.
If Michael Ignatieff wishes to avoid the fate of Martin and Dion, he needs to bring to the battle which is now engaged his own personality, armed with a vision of where he will take Canada.
And that vision needs to be one voters can identify with him. Not all that matters is the man, the man must also have a plan.
Ignatieff will not win if he simply allows the Liberals to cobble together a hodge podge of poorly linked issues as the Liberal platform, and then drop this on the electorate a few weeks before the next election.
Ignatieff will win if he brings forth a strong Liberal platform, with his own stamp on it, and delivers it to the voters now, articulating where he will take the country over the next decade.
By doing so, he will have coloured himself in, rather than let Harper do that, and will force Harper to talk policies, and not just resort to framing one man in order to win.
It will be interesting to see if Ignatieff confronts the very real threat to him posed by the Tory framing, and succeeds in dictating the battleground. Both Martin and Dion failed in this, and went down to defeat. In this respect, Ignatieff's position is very different from that of any previous Liberal leader, who lived and fought in Parliament and out, and who were not colourless politicians in the eyes of most Canadians. Because of his absence from Canada, Ignatieff has to establish that he does indeed speak for Canada, and can be trusted to be prime minister. And he has to do this in a very, very short timeframe.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
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17 comments:
Personally I find it unlikely that Ignatieff has anything to worry about except for, doing nothing...which seems to be the mode nowadays.
Foottothefire
A rare coherent analysis on this issue from a fellow Liberal.
I agree with it not seeming like a "presidential" election and to focus on the team but it is Ignatieff who boasts about having personal friends in the White House (which seems like he is bragging about the ability to peddle influence).
It is also very irksome when Ignatieff always says "I" instead of "we". It is I, I, I, I until the conservative ads start to have resonance.
Is there no "we" left in the Liberal Party?
The story they are trying to push - that Ignatieff doesn't care about us, he just cares about himself - is an attack on Ignatieff's motives for serving as an MP and as leader of the party.
As to your strategy, isn't that what Dion did? As soon as Dion came out with a vision and plan outside of election period, Harper moved from attacking the person to the plan, by misrepresenting the plan.
When Ignatieff comes out with a plan, he had better have millions of dollars to back it up and still be able to fight an election because Harper will have that and will not hesitate to use it, if it can help him maintain power.
The other problem , as I see it, is about the Liberal platform.
It is obvious it is not being developed by Ignatieff. He assigned that task to Bob Rae and Scott Brison if I recall .
Recently he "decreed" that he has asked for the platform to be ready by June.
So, he delegates. So can anyone who can't do it themselves. That is not really very good leadership. If we wanted Bob Rae's ideas we should have chosen him as leader instead of Ignatieff as a figure head and Apps pulling the strings.
What the hell was Anon 3:53???
Lyn
Anon 3.53 was spam; I deleted him/her.
Anon 3:46, the Liberal platform should be a team effort. Dion was criticized for not listening to others and in the end it meant that the team was not all pulling in unison. Ignatieff, Rae, and many others made it clear at the Convention that they are working together, which is how it should be.
"That is not really very good leadership."
Actually delegating is the best indicator of real leadership. I mean that has to be the most laughable criticism I've heard for quite some time, a LEADER who relies on other capable men, whom he has faith in, to help him navigate is a negative. There's weak, then they're just stupidity.
In reality, what should scare people is leaders who rely on themselves, don't listen or take counsel from others. Remind you of anybody?
As to the substance of you post, using Martin as an example of Harper amazing ability to frame opponents is a non-starter. All Harper did was stay out of the way while the Liberals imploded and the Canadian population tired of 13 year rule. Plus, let's keep it real here for all the people who genuflect at the Harper brilliance- if not for a timely RCMP leak, this guy, despite everything in his favor, probably STILL would have lost.
I thought Nik Nanos has it right, in terms of actually deciphering the Conservative "success":
"A lot of their success has actually been predicated on the weakness and division in the opposition not necessarily on their own credit so to speak."
I'm not saying we shouldn't respect our opponent, but let's not pretend we're up against a juggernaut here. That's never been the case, and the only reason these guys were re-elected is because we were such a disaster. That dynamic is gone now, no matter your measure, so be weary but don't be scared. Much of the Harper mystic is a mirage.
Harper is far more disciplined than Martin or Dion; he shows this is his fanatical control and muzzling of his MPs; he shows it in his ready use of very effective framing ads (including the latest ones on Ignatieff); he shows it in his masterly fund raising prowess; he shows it in his mastery of Parliament during question time; he shows it in his micro-policies; and he shows it in his ability to smell bullshit on the part of his opposition.
But he is not infallible, just very very good and extraordinarily ruthless.
As he is prone to error.
So far he has had to fight lesser politicians. Now he faces Ignatieff and (after the last election) a formidable Liberal front bench.
This time round his fight will be much tougher.
But let's not underestimate just how good he is. For example, his use of that little video with Ignatieff talking about himself as an American is brilliant and very effective. That kind of sense for the jugular can destroy an opponent. Ignatieff will have problems coping with these framing ads because they are so well done.
'force Harper to talk policies'
Cat, he talks policy every day, in many towns across Canada, announcing infrastructure projects.
Harper was Chief Policy Officer for Preston Manning, policy IS Harpers strong suit, second only to his political experience 1984-2009.
The framing of MI will be multilayered,
unlike Dion's single frame.
Wilson, I meant policies as in the Liberal battleground - talk about our policies which should (hopefully) be far better and more appealing than Harper's.
At the moment Harper seems to be the one choosing everything and the one talking policies, with the opposition very reactive.
"But let's not underestimate just how good he is."
Nobody is, but let's not overstate it either. Martin defeated himself, all Harper had to do is stay out of the way. If not for voter fatigue with the Liberals and a 12% swing in the polls because of that RCMP probe which reinforced the scandal plagued meme, Harper would be a historical footnote.
And, using that quote isn't "brilliant", it's easy. What I don't like, this assumption that the Liberals are out smarted by Harper. That ad is attack ad 101, the exactsame format has been used for decades, by every political party (unless of course using one's words against them is NEW), so let's not credit this brilliant discovery, and let's not pretend we can't do the same in response, if necessary. Again, respect but not fear. Especially when you see the quality of their most devoted supporters- see above.
"At the moment Harper seems to be the one choosing everything and the one talking policies, with the opposition very reactive."
Sorry, this is where you lose me again. I know you had this theory, or personal want, whatever, that Harper was going to lead the Liberals around on a leash after the budget, but the facts don't back it up and that narrative is non-existent on the political landscape. What's the number one policy consideration that's being debated at the moment? Who's defending themselves against whom? Is Harper dictating to the opposition on EI, or is he reacting to other's demands? Who's driving that debate? Try to forget about being proven right, based on past arguments and look at it objectively. I've been a Liberal now for three years, and the last few months have been the first time I've seen any evidence of strength or formidable opposition. Now it's all about others propping up, others trying to avoid a confrontation, nobody really disputes the Liberals have some latitude. Harper leading us by the nose is an old story, things have changed. If people can't admit that, then I don't understand the basic value in any read, because it doesn't even acknowledge what seems to me an obvious fact. So obvious, that partisan blinders aren't required ;)
''So far he has had to fight lesser politicians.''
Lesser politicians?
Martin, the FinMin that slayed the deficit, Dion, Chretiens hero of National Unity,
MI 3 years an MP..
''Now he faces Ignatieff and (after the last election) a formidable Liberal front bench.''
Actually, you just pointed out a weakness in the Official opposition, only 77 members, most are newbies or backbenchers, with only a few exceptions.
Many of MI's front bench were elected as MPs at the same time, or after he was (Rae) 2006.
Many of Harper's front bench were elected in the 1990's, and are now experienced cabinet ministers.
It is PMSH that has the strong front bench,
not MI.
Team Martin, Team Dion and now Team Iggy???
As always, a very interesting analysis. But I disagree with one part of your premiss. I think Dion framed himself by failing to respond at a personal and legislative level at the very beginning. He simply 'painted' himself in, as you say, by failing from the start of his time as leader to confront the Conservatives. Polls gave him a fairly good bump when he first became leader and he should have gone for broke in those first couple of months. Instead he showed himself as indecisive and largely spineless. Your analysis suggests that the Conservative are "framing" the opposition leaders. But I think that the most that they could do was focus an impression that the opposition leaders were already projecting. This will only change when the Liberal leader shows the strength and gumption that can fight fire with fire or is so confident and smooth (like Obama) that he cannot be ridiculed. We shall see. Thanks for the posting.
kirbycairo, I agree with your point: it has been a long time since we saw a Liberal leader actually leading. I guess being in power saps the need to lead by putting before the voters policies and values and concepts and plans for taking the country into a new millenium.
Maybe being banished to the Land of Opposition might over a few years allow a Liberal leader to emerge who actually wants to lead the country into a better future rather than rely on an archaic sense of entitlement.
That said, I have high expectations for the new Liberal front bench and the other newbies in Parliament...
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