Threehundredandeight has the reasons summarized, based on the latest polls:
"The NDP's result isn't horrible, and is in fact a little better than what we've seen lately, but Jack Layton would be taking a huge gamble if he supported a non-confidence motion, as he will surely see his caucus fall to under 30 seats. He could even lose as many as half of his MPs. The Bloc has nothing to gain in an election, except maybe a return to areas that the Conservatives have won in the last two elections. But they are likely to see their caucus drop by a handful of seats, their portion of the vote drop by a few points, their finances to drop by a few million dollars, and their political capital to take a big hit."
The only thing the Liberals can do right now is attend to the fleshing out of our policies, make sure that members get a chance to review them before they are cast in stone by the elite, and gather in as much cash as possible in preparation for an election in, say, a year's time.
Oh, and they can consider another course of action: cut a bargain with the Dippers and the Bloc. This would have to commit the three parties to not run candidates against each other in ridings now held by each party, and for both the Bloc and NDP to have some kind of say over what a minority Liberal government would do once in power.
If this is anathema to Ignatieff and his advisors, the alternative is as I laid out above: get ready and wait until the Tory mandate expires and they are forced to call an election.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
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9 comments:
Why would Dippers and the Bloc allow MI more time to raise cash and develop a policy platform?
Right now, MI would have to go on the campaign trail, without a huge bank account, without grassroots even knowing what's in their own platform.
And for the Cons, the economy is showing signs of improvement, but the unemployment numbers are going to get worse.
This is a good time for PMSH to go to the people, to finish what he started.
We will see within a week whether Jack Layton wishes to jump over a cliff, along with Duceppe; or whether they decide to pass this time. That is assuming that the LPC does indeed next week call for a vote of non confidence in the Tory government ...
I am pretty confident that at the very least the NDP will abstain on such a vote at this time, perhaps quoting Ignatieff that Canadians do not want another election this summer.
I think the Libs have to provide the motion to the House 5 or so days (?) in advance of the vote,
so we will know very soon.
Betting on the other guy is a fools game, accidents happen, like some Cons don't show up at the last minute.
It will be the Liberal Party that votes to keep this government alive, just as it has been for the past few years. We will see in a few days, but my prediction is that the Liberals will once again vote with Harper.
I dont want people to lose their jobs BUT THESE HAPLESS CLOWNS need to be abolished. What a bunch of arrogant pr@cks. do you know they have not given one cent increase in three years to the poor seniors.
I just read press reports which quoted the NDP and Bloc as saying they rejected Harper's economic update.
If that view holds, it is up to Ignatieff whether he votes to keep Harper in power or to turf him out.
We will know in two days time, according to him.
That depends if Iggy has a spare minute or not. A quote via the CBC...
"So I'm going to look at the report tonight if I get a minute and tomorrow, and then we'll make a decision."
Glad he takes this so seriously.
Sheesh.
Iggy has no spine...there will be no election this summer.
Iggy should vote no confidence so he can go back to Harvard for the Fall Semester.
I don't think Ignatieff will lose his seat in Toronto, so I don't see him going back to Harvard any time soon.
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