Tuesday, February 05, 2013

Liberal Leadership Race: Critical Strategy for Leadnow and Fair Vote Canada

Both are recommending to their tens of thousands of members that they join the Liberal Party as Supporters and vast votes for meaningful electoral reform when voting for the next leader.

But there is one startling statistic that should impact their strategy if they really want to be effective, and it is that one third of Liberal ridings are dormant, non-existent, pining for the Norwegian fjords:


Liberals estimate that approximately 80 of their 308 riding associations across the country are now dormant: with only a handful of party members in the riding, a non-functioning or dysfunctional riding executive and little or no ability to raise funds. Some party leaders believe the number is closer to 100.


Because the rules for the election of the next Liberal leader give each and every one of the 308 ridings equal votes (100 each), the Liberal leader will be chosen by a disproportionately few Supporters in those 100 inactive ridings.

Massive votes for candidates in ridings now held by Liberal MPs will tilt the 100 votes of each such riding, but tens of thousands of those votes will be wasted.


The real battle is taking place in those 100 inactive ridings, where there are no Liberal associations to drum up 10 or 20 or 30 members who will cast votes for their choice for leader and thus disproportionately influence 10,000 of the 30,800 votes for leadership.

Think about it.

To win, a candidate needs half of the 30,800 votes at the primary, or 15,400 plus 1, for a total of 15,401.

Right now, the latest number of LPC members and Supporters released by the party is around 100,000, or an average of just over 300 votes for each of the 308 ridings.

Realistically, there will be more supporters and members in those ridings where there are Liberal associations up and running (around 200 of the 308), so the average number there will be more than 300.

Now think about the clout of the 100 dormant ridings. Between them, they will be casting 58% of the total votes a candidate needs to win (9,000 of the 15,401 needed to win).

Now figure out the strategy that Leadnow and Fair Vote Canada and Liberals for Fair Voting should take.

You're right:  aim at enrolling as many supporters in those 100 dormant ridings as you can and you will exert a disproportionate influence on the election. A relative handful of proportional representation supporters in each of those 100 ridings can swing the selection of the next Liberal leader and bring about radical democratic reform of Canada in 2015.

AND THE NON-TORY VOTERS IN THOSE 100 RIDINGS ARE THE MOST FERTILE TARGETS - THEIR VOTES ARE RENDERED WORTHLESS UNDER THE FIRST PAST THE POST SYSTEM, BUT WILL COUNT UNDER PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION.

Most of those ridings are held by Tories. Many are in the Tory strongholds. They are in Alberta, Manitoba, much of Quebec, most of BC, the outlying areas of Ontario.

Signing up around 30 or 50 new reform supporters in those 100 ridings could usher in a bright new democracy for our country.

But this has to be done by March 3.

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