Tuesday, June 08, 2010

Chantal Herbert: LPC + NDP could win an absolute majority of seats

Chantal Herbert believes good things are possible from a cooperation agreement:
Based on the results of the 2008 election, a coalition running on a joint platform and a common slate of candidates could add 42 seats to the current NDP-Liberal total of 114 MPs, bringing it on the winning side of a governing majority.
The bulk of those gains would be Liberal ones and more than half of them would be registered in Central Canada.
In Ontario, a combination of the 2008 NDP and Liberal vote would result in the election of 15 more Liberal MPs.
In Quebec, such an arrangement would translate into nine more Liberal seats — almost doubling the party’s score in that province.
Under such an arrangement, the NDP would add only a handful of new seats to its take, mostly in Western Canada.
The gain for the New Democrats would be the guarantee of a direct role in government for the first time ever at the federal level.

One further fact to consider: in 2008 we had a turnout of only 59.1% of voters, compared to 64.9% in 2006 and 60.9% in 2004. If a cooperative agreement with a non-compete element was entered into, I believe that the synergy resulting from the re-energized grouping would attract more disillusioned voters to vote, easily pushing the total participation rate in the next election up to the mid-60's or even higher, with most of the increase going to the new grouping.

This would give the new grouping a substantial majority of votes and hence seats over the Tories, and catapult the LPC+NDP into government. If one considers the results of the 2008 election, it is possible (if the LPC and NDP support held) for a cooperation agreement with a non-compete undertaking between these two parties to result in an absolute majority of seats for the working partnership:


  1. Liberals tried the non-compete with Dion May and the local EDA's were not happy?

    In November 2009 it did not help win back the seat after Casey retired.

    308 is no longer valid, it should consider like the Separatists in becoming a regional party.

    The party has already lost their pan canadian status by being abandoning the rural voters.

    “Take all of his MPs in his caucus who are elected in the major cities out of his caucus and he could hold his next caucus meeting in a phone booth.” -Hec Clouthier

    Many star candidates recruited are no longer interested in running anymore.

    Some in the LPOC are afraid they be reduced to 25% from 26.3%. They fear they may not recover and the NDP are going to replace them.
    They prefer to negotiate from a pre-election position in case they fall behind the NDP.

    W.K. stressed no opposition party is prepared to abandon the political party subsidy.

    This will be a campaign issue around entitlements for political parties that the Liberals were on the wrong side in 08.

    The grassroots may return after the purge of the old Liberals.

  2. Im not sure a merger will work. I would be happy to see it try. Still, it does appear possible for co-operation in the next election. There has to be something for everyone, and then we can put an end to Harper and his government.

  3. Of course it "could".

    It "could" also split the Liberal votes between NDP/Lib coalition and the Conservative party.

    There's many people who vote Liberal who won't vote for a Lib/NDP coalition. How many? Who knows...


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