Thursday, May 05, 2011

The Harper Majority – The Birddog 14

Hat tip to Dammit Janet! and to Alison at Creekside for this remarkable analysis.

First the bad news ...

All the efforts to persuade Liberal, Green and NDP voters to vote strategically, and Harper wins his majority by 14 seats!


Birddog 1
Think about that.

Harper's majority depends on 14 seats which he won by 6,201 votes or an average of 443 votes per riding.

The Tory combined votes for those 14 seats was 219,939 votes. The second place candidates gained 213,738 votes.


All that was needed to prevent Harper having his majority, and to have a new Prime Minister (Jack Layton) after a vote of no confidence in the Harper budget, was for 6,201 Liberals or Greens or Dippers to have voted strategically for the candidate who came in second in those 14 seats – that's just 6% of the other opposition votes!

Birddog 2
Now the good news ...

And it is this:

Harper's majority depends on 14 seats which he won by 6,201 votes or an average of 443 seats per riding.

That crown must rest uneasily on Harper's brow for the next 4 years.

How to give Harper a 4-year Nightmare:

So let's do three things to give him some nightmares.
Launch Operation Birddog 14:

First, let's set up Operation Birddog for each of these 14 seats. Ideally, we should locate each Birddog HQ in a riding next to or close to the Tory seat being birddogged won by either the Liberal or the NDP parties.
Birddog 3

Then let's accumulate information of all kinds on each and every one of these 14 Tory MPs.  Photographs. Press reports. Hansard reports. Take our cue from Harper and his meeting goons, and check their Twitters and Facebook entries. Use google images to find out pics. Check their attendance records.

In other words, birddog each and every move of each of the Birddog 14 for the next 4 years, so that we have lots and lots of information on each target seat, for use in the 2015 election.

Birddog 4
And publish an annual Birddog 14 Report on May 2 of each of the next 4 years, detailing exactly what these 14 Tories have or have not done etc, and describing the progress with Operation Birddog 14. Use Facebook, Twitter and Bloggers to spread the Birddog 14 Report.

Launch a Catch22-type operation for each of the Birddog 14 seats:

Starting now, let's launch a strategic voting operation designed to switch 1,000 or 2,000 votes in each of these Birddog 14 seats over the course of the next 4 years.

The aim is to ensure that none of the Birddog 14 win by an average margin of 433 seats in the 2015 election.

Leader Commitment to dog the Birddog 14:

Let's get Jack Layton, Elizabeth May and the next leader of the Liberal Party to commit to make at least one visit every six months for the next 4 years to each and every one of the Birddog 14 seats, to ensure that the efforts to reduce Harper's majority by retaking the Birddog 14 seats gets constant and remorseless attention in the press.

Now is the time to copy Harper's permanent campaigning style, and what better place to start then with the vulnerable Birddog 14.


  1. Great idea! Great photos too!

  2. google image - type in birddog and out they come.

    The Birddog 14 will soon learn how powerful google image is if the three opposition parties take up the Birddog 14 idea!

  3. Fern Hill - another thought: if the opposition parties decide to launch Operation Birddog 14, The Cat suggests that they hold a competion on a Facebook page with the same name (Birddog 14) to find the best composite photos of the heads or faces of each of the 14 Tory MPs on the Birddog 14 list with dog bodies - similar to the photos in the blog above!

    That would create a nice buzz for the launching of Operation Birddog 14.

    Of course, a bit later we could expand the operation to catch additional seats won by the Tories with smallish margins ...

  4. Alison deserves all the credit; I'm just her publicist.


  5. Strategic voting failed. The recommendations of many strategic voting websites placed *third* in about 1 in 3 races. We're back to square one.

  6. I did the Google image thing. Weird that the dog heads on bird bodies is kinda cute, but the bird heads on dog bodies is creepy.

  7. Don't you mean the Birddog 23 (counting the 9 seats in which the Conservatives beat the NDP by less than 4%)?

  8. Anon, do you have the names and votes and margins of those extra 9 seats? A 4% margin looks birddoggable to The Cat!

  9. Does anyone know how to get this idea to key strategists for opposition parties?

  10. I hope anon sends those NDP seats within 4%. Because we'd be better off targeting more than just those ones listed.

    Moreover, you'd have to study the voter shift via Pundit's guide. Some of the shift was for instance related to right leaning Liberals moving to cons, and thus one can't make the automatic assumption that NDP, plus Lib, plus green vote would automatically shift to the left column.

    At least in the Prairies the majority of races are Con & NDP but it gets more dicey as you move East.

  11. sooo.... hows the council of elders coming along

  12. All you have to do is fold the party.Poof vote splitting is over.

    The irony of vote splitting is that the threat of PM Layton spooked some Libs into the Conservative camp.

  13. @ Anon,You wrote, "The irony of vote splitting is that the threat of PM Layton spooked some Libs into the Conservative camp."
    I would like to see some referance material siting the basis for that statement please, a Link to a source, etc.... Are you refering to Harper's comments that there were so-called "BlueLiberals" out there? Again I would ask of him, the same as I just asked of you, where is the information you have to support such a statement? I know an answer will ^NOT come from him, but how about you? Will you reply? G

  14. Oh look! An *anonymous* Con troll @ 7:23 pm

    "Blue Libs" who voted for the Contempt Party weren't really true Grits, were they?

  15. I am a Liberal first and a conservative second. Don't know why people in the Liberal party see themselves as socialists.

  16. Ridings where the NDP lost to the Cons by less than 5% (turns out there were just 8, not 9):

    Elmwood – Transcona  1% 
    Bramalea – Gore – Malton  1% 
    Lotbinière – Chutes-de-la-Chaudière  1% 
    Saskatoon – Rosetown – Biggar  2% 
    Palliser  2% 
    Vancouver Island North  3% 
    Desnethé – Missinippi – Churchill River  4% 
    Sault Ste. Marie  4% 

  17. Thanks, Anon: anything won with 5% or less should be Birddogged, in my view!

  18. Hope it works as well as Catch 22...Harper won 22 new seats in Ontario...good knowing he keeps you all busy doing silly things that will never defeat the man as he is 10 steps ahead of the leaders and 10 times that ahead of you people...


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