Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Did Canada's "Arab Spring" start in Quebec on May 2?

The answer is Yes if pollster Allan Gregg'sspeculations are right. The NDP has 33% - tied with the Tories:

Jack Layton's untimely death has triggered another orange wave across the country, a new poll suggests.

The Harris/Decima survey conducted for The Canadian Press pegs NDP support at 33 per cent – tied with the ruling Conservatives and well ahead of the Liberals at 21 per cent.

That's almost a three-point gain for the New Democrats since the May 2 election, which vaulted the party into Official Opposition status for the first time in its 50-year history.
 But the really interesting comment comes a bit later on, when Gregg speculates about what is causing the NDP boat to rise while the Tory and Liberal boats sink or just bobble around in the political waters. Read what his guess is:

Mr. Gregg said it remains to be seen whether the bounce in NDP support reflects “an emotional response to Jack Layton's death or is it a larger kind of embracing of what Jack Layton was portrayed to represent around the time of his death?”

Other polling Mr. Gregg has done suggests Canadians are genuinely fed up with “partisanship and negativity.” He noted that Mr. Layton was seen during the last half of the election campaign as a cheery, optimistic, positive political leader, qualities that were eulogized repeatedly last week.

“If that is something that is causing people to gravitate toward the NDP, it suggests it's going to be that much harder to replicate without him,” Mr. Gregg said.

Think about it.

At the time of our election, and for every month since then, our news has been filled with pictures of Arabs revolting against political systems that were stable, overbearing, not responsive to the needs and wishes of most of the people in the countries afflicted with the uprisings. And then, suddenly, like a cork pulled from a bottle of old wine, buried in some dusty cellar for decades and just now taken up to the dining room, the explosion of life, of unrest, of action to change things.

Isn't that what happened in Quebec?

Did not millions of Quebeckers decide to "change things" from the deadening stability or statis that the lineup of Tory, Liberal, Dipper and Bloc promised?

Did not those millions vote to try something new?
Is that not what lies beneath the Arab Spring?

If Gregg's guess is right, then a profound, long lasting and meaningful change has taken place in Canada, and we are all still scrambling to find out what happened, and where it will take us.

Bad news for Harper's Tories, who's ascent to power depended on stasis, a first past the post system, and the ability to rely on around 30 to 33% of the voters.

But very good news for progressive voters, who are tired of the meanness of the Harper government, and hope for a resurgent Canada to take its rightful place in the forefront of democratic nations of the world.


  1. However, Gregg's analysis is wrong - not only has this poll not shifted NDP numbers in any meaningful way (this is the same score they got in the last HD pol), but it's the Liberals who have seen a 6-point jump with nary a mention from the man who did the actual polling. How the heck does that equal out to "Arab spring," especially when the NDP are actually DOWN in Quebec.

    It's media hype, you're falling for it, and not doing your research, as Gregg himself has usually failed to do. Way to go.

  2. I prefer my Canadian Arab Spring hypothesis.

    And we will know the answer in about 6 months time, once the new NDP leader is in place, things have settled down after Jack's passing.


Thank you for commenting; come again! Let us reason together ...

Random posts from my blog - please refresh page for more: