My guess is this will happen in the 2015 election.
And then I would expect that the Tories will turn on Harper and he will retire before they throw him out in a desperate attempt to regain the approval of voters.
Who do I think is the most likely candidate right now to replace Harper?
How about looking at the Tory heartlandAlberta:
All during the long leadership struggle, Redford was slowly growing. In 40 years of writing about politics, I've never seen anyone improve so much during a campaign.
Stiff and unsmiling at the start, Redford grew in confidence until, at an Edmonton news conference Sunday, she handled herself with the relaxed confidence of a veteran leader.
At one point, in response to a francophone reporter's question, she broke into fluent French — not the biggest Alberta vote-getter, obviously, but a vital skill for a premier who hopes to navigate the treacherous rapids of Ottawa.
Imagine that: fluent in French, a woman, a compassionate conservative with the knack for actually using social media in campaigning, and a politician who will reform the somewhat stodgy Alberta Tory party.
Who else can top that right now?
Better keep a close eye on Ms Redford, Mr Harper. She could easily be drafted to replace you, I expect.