Sunday, October 02, 2011

How NDP Andrea Horwath could secure PR within a few months

The latest compilation of poll of polls by threehundredeight shows that it would appear that Liberal support is solid, PC support is sliding, and NDP support is on the rise.

The 308 projection is as follows:

And this leads 308 to the conclusion that the Liberals in Otario will win 54 seats, and with a Liberal Speaker this reduces to 53, just a fraction over the majority in the Legislature.

However, The Cat believes that the tide is turning in Ontario, with late breakers moving towards the NDP. I would not be  surprised to see a further uptick of between 1.5% and 3% for the NDP come Thursday, and with the Liberal seat total to drop below the number needed for a majority government.

When that happens, McGuinty will have the right to attempt for form a minority government, and will need to win the confidence of the Legislature. 

This means that if both the NDP and Tories vote no-confidence in the Liberals, the McGuinty government will fall. 

Then the party with the next  highest number of seats – Hudak's Tories – will be called upon to see if they can form a government that has the confidence of the Legislature.

If the Liberals support Hudak's minority government, Hudak will become premier even if the NDP voted against the Tories.

If McGuinty decided to abstain, then the Tories would form the government even if the NDP voted against them.

However, sooner or later the Liberals would be faced with either continuously supporting the Hudak minority government despite the legislation they table (a bit like the position of the federal Liberals, which found themselves propping up the minority Harper government time after time, because the party leader could not see his way clear to forcing an election and then throwing Harper out), or voting against measures they find distasteful. If this happens, and the NDP votes against the Tories within the first 12 months, then when the Hudak government falls, who knows what might happen.

It is conceivable that Horwath, as leader of the party with the third highest number of seats, might be called upon to form a government and seek the confidence of the Legislature.

What do the above hypothetical alternatives show?

Simply this. Despite McGuinty today appearing to rule out any coalition, accord or agreement of any kind with the NDP or the Tories, he will be faced with possibly losing the premiership if the Tories indicate that they will vote non-confidence in his minority government, and the NDP indicate before the confidence vote that they intend doing the same.

That will be the time for McGuinty to reconsider his rash statement and to talk to either the Tories or the NDP about some kind of an arrangement.

Another possibility is for Hudak (who has not publicly painted himself into the "Ignatieff corner" of politics by ruling out any arrangements with any other party) to have a little chat with Horwath and seek her support for his minority government.

If/when that happens, Horwith will be perfectly within her rights to cut a deal with the Tories to achieve legislation dear to her heart.

And if she is wise, she will insist on legislation being passed within 6 months to implement proportional representation in future elections in the province.

1 comment :

  1. Excellent comment. Please pass on your suggestion to some or all of the 17 NDP MPPs.


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