The EKOS poll shows substantial bleeding of support from the voters who voted for Jack Layton's NDP on May 2, to the provincial Liberal Party lead by McGuinty:
It is also notable that in addition to being more discouraged than mad, NDP supporters are not overly upset with the direction of the provincial government. This may be why much of the enlarged NDP base from May 2nd has gone to the Ontario Liberal Party (about 25% of current Ontario Liberal supporters voted NDP in May). When we put all of this together, we expect that the actual turnout will see the NDP (and the very soft Green Party vote) decline on Thursday.
What does this mean? It means that under Andrea Horwath the Orange Surge that Jack Layton's NDP created in Ontario is ebbing fast, with negative consequences for the provincial NDP.
If the name of the game of politics is achieving the power to influence how your province is governed, then Horwath is showing signs of failure 3 days before the election.
In my view, it is time for Horwath to try a Hail Mary pass in order to stop the bleeding and to reinvigorate her NDP voters (who are less enthused than the Liberal voters are, according to the EKOS poll).
If Horwath made a very clear commitment today that if she held the balance of power come Friday, then she would insist on the Liberal Party agreeing to pass legislation within 6 months to implement a system of proportional representation for the next election, then she would stand a much better chance of changing the history of how things are done in that province and in Canada.
What a rallying cry for the NDP (and other voters who are disillusioned with the archaic and undemocratic first past the post system of elections we have): Vote NDP so that next time your vote will count!