Thursday, November 17, 2011

My Forecast for the next 18 months

Based on events taking place right now, and on trends I think I have spotted, The Cat is going out on a limb with the following forecasts:

  1. Israel will strike Iran's nuclear plants.

  1. Iran will retaliate with missile and other attacks on Israel, and on US citizens and interests in several spots of the world.

  1. Syria will descend into a bitter civil war.

  1. France and England will cooperate with a view to assisting the Syrian opposition.

  1. The UN will not back anything close to the Libyan operation because both Russia and China will veto such a move. Therefore the EU will have to decide whether to use force (arms and blockades) to help the insurgents in Syria.

  1. Protests will take place in Iran, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

  1. The Taliban will become part of the government of Afghanistan.

  1. Either Gingrich or Romney will be chosen as the Republican nominee for president; but Obama will win in November 2012.

  1. The Democrats will gain seats in the Senate and the House but the Republicans will still  control  the House.

  1. The House Republicans will face a serious split between the 72 who signed a no-tax pledge and the rest. The no-taxers will lose their veto power on the Republicans in the House.

  1. The world  economy will go into the tank and recovery will be slow, painful and even more jobless, given the stupid austerity programs now being implemented in so many countries.

  1. Harper will limit the sittings of our Parliament, substantially curtailing debate through closure, and reducing the days actually in session to a historic high.

  1. By December 2012 the polls will show a substantial  drop in Tory support due to the worsening economy and the evident inability of the Tory cabinet to properly handle economic matters.

  1. Neither Mulcair nor Topp will win the leadership of the NDP. Possible new leaders are Nathan Cullen or Pat Martin or a surprise other. The winner will be in favour of electoral cooperation with the Liberal Party.

  1. NDP support in the polls will fall in Quebec to such a low level that panic will set in amongst NDP bigwigs, who will scramble to remedy their shortsighted neglect of the breakthrough in that province.

  1. The Liberal Party will adopt some of the renewal plan – the use of primaries for the selection of the Leader and in ridings; the cutting of layers; the focus on a thrust to match the Tory advantage in computer based systems.

  1. The convention of the LPC will see several major new motions tabled and passed, aimed at reducing the shameful democratic deficits within the party. These will include direct participation via internet  voting on the formation and adoption of party policy.

  1. Serious fissures will arise within the Liberal Party over the wisdom of pretending that there is no pressing need to unite the non-Tory vote in order to oust the Harper Tories from government. Candidates favouring pre-election electoral ceasefire and pre-election discussion with the NDP of a possible coalition government will come forward; opinion polls  will show overwhelming support for some form of non-merger  cooperation well before and after the 2015 election.

  1. Bob Rae will openly support such cooperation, as long as it is not a merger, the parties retain their separate existence, and if any party wins a majority of seats in 2015, the deal is off.

  1. Sheila Copps will be chosen as the new President of the LPC.

  1. There will be a scandal involving prominent Tories which will harm that party.

  1. Harper will finally terminate the F-35 purchase, but continue to build his jails.

  1. By December 2012, opinion polls will show a dramatic increase in voter support throughout the country for the Liberal Party.

  1. Come December 2012, The Cat will still be considering running for leader of the Liberal Party on a platform whose major planks include (1) pre-election electoral  ceasefire with the NDP; (2) pre-election agreement with the NDP on a coalition government which will last for 4 years, cover certain agreed matters (including implementing a modified form of proportional representation) and which will terminate should either the NDP or the LPC win a majority of seats in the House; (3) major steps to remedy the democratic deficit in the Liberal Party and in Parliament, including more free votes for MPs, more cooperation across party lines in the House, ability of citizens to have topics raised and voted on in the House etc.

Now let time take its toll of this little bit of crystal gazing.

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