Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Justin Trudeau: Thomas Mulcair's worst nightmare

If Justin Trudeau was leader of the Liberal Party of Canada and an election was held today, then three of Thomas Mulcair's nightmare events would take place

Firstly, and most seriously, roughly 1 in 3 NDP supporters would switch their votes to the Liberals.

Secondly, the LPC and CPC would be neck and neck in votes nationally, with the Liberals knocking the stuffing out of the Tories in battleground Ontario.

And finally, the Liberals would knock the NDP back into third place nationally.

On top of all that, Quebec  - the beachead of the NDP after the Jack Layton breakthrough smashing of the Bloc on May 2, 2011 – would be seriously threatened by the resurgent Liberals.

Congratulations to David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, for doing Canadians an impressive favour with his illuminative June poll of voters political intentions.

Coletto has zeroed in on the crux of Canadian politics at this moment, plumbing the intentions of Canadians with respect to support for a federal party should Justin Trudeau lead the Liberal Party.

And the results should give both Thomas Mulcair and Stephen Harper sleepless nights for the rest of the summer.

Here is the result for the country as a whole:

Note the relegation of the Dippers to third place at 24%, behind the Liberals (32%) and Tories (33%).

And here's Abacus' revealing subgroup analysis table:

Note the neck and neck horserace between the Dippers and Liberals in Quebec (32% and 30%) – yet another poll demonstrating that the NDP breakthrough in that province is of questionable durability ('stickiness') if the Liberals go into battle with an attractive new leader.

Note also the dramatic change in BC, where Liberal fortunes increase substantially (to 29%, nudging the NDP down to 23%). This could mean that the Lotus Province is in play rather than being a two-party race between the Tories and NDP as most polls (and election results) have shown it is. With Justin as leader, expect the Liberals to gain more than the 2 MPs it now has in BC.

And here is the clincher – the Abacus table showing the bleeding of 1 in 3 (28%) of NDP supporters away from Mulcair to the Liberal Party headed by Trudeau:

Thanks, Messrs Abacus and Coletto, for contributing to the vibrant dialogue taking place in Canada right now.

We look forward to frequent updates. Perhaps you could check the views of Canadians with respect to the new category of Supporters that the Liberal Party has created? How many voters who are not members of the CPC, Greens, Bloc or NDP would consider becoming Supporters and vote for the next Liberal leader? And who would they prefer as such leader?


  1. Hey Cat,

    Not sure if you are being facetious.

    Check out these Abacus polls in the recent Alberta and Ontario elections:

    (a) WR to win majority with a poll of 41%: http://abacusdata.ca/2012/04/20/alberta-politics-final-election-poll-wr-41-pc-31-ndp-13-alp-12/

    (b) Hudak to win Ontario in an exclusive poll released to Sun Media: http://www.ipolitics.ca/2011/09/27/what%E2%80%99s-in-a-poll-ekos-and-abacus-on-the-ontario-provincial-election/

    The Abacus poll for Ontario actually contradicted EKOS which correctly predicted a Liberal win in Ontario

    As I said, I am not sure if you are serious.

  2. I suppose that it would balance the 1 in 3 Liberals who voted for Harper in the last election.

  3. Time (and other polls) will confirm that Abacus is right with this poll. Wait and see.

  4. If the poll is correct it confirms that the NDP must finally get with the programme and abandon its tradition of refusing to cultivate and expand its own brand of "stupid vote".

    The NDP must begin to mine the margins of the uninformed and gullible within the electorate, as the CPC has so successfully done and as the Liberals would seem to be attempting by the notion of elevating the boy prince to their party leadership.

  5. Ok. First, the best Finance Minister in Canadian history was supposed to be the bestest PM ever, then, Dion was going to give Stephen Harper ulcers and sleepless nights, then, Ignatieff was brought up from the US to show Canadians his superior intelect and the shore up Liberal losses...now an MP with little to no govt expierience who has never even been in Cabinet is your next answer? Now, he might just be, but, man do you guys have one hell of a Messiah complex.

  6. Anon 3.52 - rather than repreating the trite 'Messiah complex' framing, perhaps you should consider why so few Canadians really support Harper and his new Tories even after his many years in power? Try this: we are fiercely determined not to allow his trashing of our democracy to continue. We oppose his contempt for our Parliament, for our MPs, for our civil servants, and for our long-fought for traditions of civilized political discourse.

    Our democracy is too precious and too rate a thing for us to sit idly by while the Harper Luddites systematically diminish it.


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