Monday, June 18, 2012

Liberals will hold the balance of power in the next Parliament

Come the election, with the Harper new Tories brand tarnished ever more every day, the polls have for the last few weeks shown that Harper will be out as prime minister in the 2014/2015 election, with the NDP having the most seats but not a majority.

The latestForum poll shows the probable seats held if the election were held right now:

What does this mean?

Firstly, en end to the democracy-adverse Tories: their brief fling at moving the country away from Parliamentary niceties into new terrain that is nasty and brutish, will prove to be a short fling.

Secondly, the Liberal Party – most likely under a very popular new leader named Justin Trudeau – will hold the balance of power between the Tories and the Dippers.

That probably means Justin Trudeau as Deputy Prime Minister under a coalition government lead by Mulcair, with a deal similar to the one cut between the UK Tories and LibDems: no merger of the two parties; a coalition government for a set period (5 years in the UK case, more likely only 3 for ours); an agreed program of legislative changes (including the rollback of many of the regressive Tory laws); and the right to vote as they wish on all other issues.

This coalition agreement will provide stability for Canada; will act as a brake on any NDP impulses to start widespread nationalization of businesses, as their preamble to their constitution provides; and will give Canadians a good taste of what civil governance, that gives dignity and power and a role to ordinary MPs, and cross-party cooperation a chance, is like.

And Harper will be replaced as leader of the Harper new Tories. We can then expect a more progressive Conservative Party to emerge, under a blue Tory leader, and our country will benefit from this positive change from the imported Republican-rightwing values and tactics that Harper has taken us on.


  1. Maybe, or, maybe not. Just not sure how anyone thinks the Libs and the NDP are going to gain 70 seats west of Quebec? Maybe 8 or 10. And, not sure how anyone thinks that more seats wont be gained by the Cons in Ontario and Eastern Canada. Ontario mostly because of McGuinty's borrow borrow borrow mentality, and, in Eastern Canada there is an Oil boom and a Ship building boom. You could be right, but, voters very rarely kick the bums out unless the economy tanks or a major scandal hits them. And it doesnt become a major scandal just because bloggers want it to become one either, it actually has to have proof and convictions.

  2. Wow! Carnac move over. It's Cat the Magnificent.

    An election is still three years away. There were idiots writing articles in newspapers calling Harper a loser the day before he won a majority.It is worse than useless trying to speculate about what will happen three years from now in parliament.

  3. Pipedream, but I will be the first one to cheer and acknowledge your foresight should you be proved to be right. Let's pray... Nothing else will do it.

  4. Major scandals no longer do it either. We have had an uninterrupted one ever since Cadman. Voters too preoccupied with their SUVs and monster houses to even notice, and lying has become the new normal anyway. What can anyone do about it - NOTHING.

  5. I pray for the day when Canada is released from the Harper right winged western Canadian appeasing tar sands oppressive regime. I then pray that the NDP will reverse the disastrous mess of Nazi legislation that was undemocratically passed in similar fashion to Hitler’s “enabling act” of 1933. I remember a time when Canada used to be a free democracy where issues were debated in Parliament and not just rammed through in marathon communist fashion.

  6. I often agree with the Cat, but this is just far too soon. Everything can happen in three years. In particular, any projection that assumes the Green party will still only have one seat next election is I think missing something new canadian politics. With one MP the Green party is having as much or more impact in parliament as the entire Liberal party. There are many ways the future can pan out, but we can't skip the next three years no matter how much we'd like to.


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