Come the election, with the Harper new Tories brand tarnished ever more every day, the polls have for the last few weeks shown that Harper will be out as prime minister in the 2014/2015 election, with the NDP having the most seats but not a majority.
The latestForum poll shows the probable seats held if the election were held right now:
What does this mean?
Firstly, en end to the democracy-adverse Tories: their brief fling at moving the country away from Parliamentary niceties into new terrain that is nasty and brutish, will prove to be a short fling.
Secondly, the Liberal Party – most likely under a very popular new leader named Justin Trudeau – will hold the balance of power between the Tories and the Dippers.
That probably means Justin Trudeau as Deputy Prime Minister under a coalition government lead by Mulcair, with a deal similar to the one cut between the UK Tories and LibDems: no merger of the two parties; a coalition government for a set period (5 years in the UK case, more likely only 3 for ours); an agreed program of legislative changes (including the rollback of many of the regressive Tory laws); and the right to vote as they wish on all other issues.
This coalition agreement will provide stability for Canada; will act as a brake on any NDP impulses to start widespread nationalization of businesses, as their preamble to their constitution provides; and will give Canadians a good taste of what civil governance, that gives dignity and power and a role to ordinary MPs, and cross-party cooperation a chance, is like.
And Harper will be replaced as leader of the Harper new Tories. We can then expect a more progressive Conservative Party to emerge, under a blue Tory leader, and our country will benefit from this positive change from the imported Republican-rightwing values and tactics that Harper has taken us on.