Sunday, July 01, 2012

Stephen Harper's doubful future – Rumblings

This snippet from this interesting article is worth considering, given the polls showing the slow motion collapse of support for the Harper new Tories across the country:

Prentice is well-regarded within Conservative and corporate circles. He's received lavish press over the years from the country's biggest newspapers. I wouldn't be surprised if Prentice eventually plays a role if there's any palace revolt within Conservative ranks—primarily because Harper's bellicose take-no-prisoners approach may not be achieving all of Bay Street's objectives in the tar sands.
As 2015 nears, expect Harper to pre-empt the election date by calling for an earlier election (my guess is in early 2014) after manufacturing some pretext through introducing legislation in Parliament which sets the framing of the election fight, casts the NDP and Mulcair in a bad light ('socialist hordes' who 'favour separarists' and 'wish to raise taxes' while 'destroying jobs' ...), and before the new Liberal leader has a chance to attend a policy conference.


  1. Slow motion collapse? Support for the Conservatives has pretty much been in the same range for the last number of years.

  2. He's hit a ceiling, and is sinking down to a core of supporters. That core will diminish over the next 18 to 24 months, as well.

    And the opposition is coalescing around the NDP right now, with Mulcair and the NDP gaining acceptance as a possible alternative government to the Harper new Tories.

    Once a Liberal leader is chosen early next year, support for the LPC will also bounce back, taking supporters from left (NDP) and right (CPC).

    Especially if the new leader is Justin Trudeau.

    If/when Harper is displaced as PM, what are the chances of his surviving as leader of the Tories?

    Slim. And getting slimmer with Prentice indicating he is in the wings ... if called upon.

  3. CC: I do think you are correct that Stephen Harper's divide and conquer strategy will fail him in the long run. There will come a point where he will start to lose the support of his loyal Conservative voters. Some of them will be targetted by Tom Mulcair's NDP and the Liberal Party with Conservative-focussed messages. For example, Mr. Mulcair may talk about the environment and health care. However, these may be targetted at Conservative supporters by tying these issues with the economy. For example, "Good environmental and health care policies are good for the economy."

    I do think that you are correct that Stephen Harper will create a crisis where he must call an election a year early. However, I don't think that Justin Trudeau will become the knight in shining armour and save the Liberal Party. I won't suggest that he will be bad for the party. However, any new leader will need to commit to at least two elections before the Liberals make substantial progress.

  4. Jim Prentice made a smart move by leaving active politics. He is able to distinguish himself from Stephen Harper and his policies whereas any current Conservative MP cannot do so.

  5. This doesn't seem to different then the Fall of 2009 after Ignatieff became leader, Harper was at a similar level of support in the polls and the "opposition was coalescing" around the Liberals.

    I also doubt that we'll see an early election. Harper's not going to want to head to the polls without having a balanced budget and without giving his promised tax cuts.

  6. He gave the seniors income splitting which put him in charge. In the last election he promised income splitting to others which will again make him a winner....why would you not vote for getting money back at tax time.

  7. Anonymous, there is much more to choosing a government than getting a tax cut. Little things like the environment, health care, education etc. should be weighed by any sentient voter. And just so you are aware, income splitting does piss all for the single people in this country. Many, many seniors, especially women fall into this category.

  8. Alison...I know ..I am one of the seniors. very senior....I was not approving of his tactics...I was just stating a fact of how THEY will get re-elected. If your family is broke and in debt and you can get a couple thousand in a tax credit..I am afraid you will take the cash back.

  9. I see more and more similarity between
    Harper Government and Hitler Germany-

    Use of fear and ignorance as means of consolidating power,especially financial fear and fear of socialism/communism.

    Early and ongoing use of propaganda- "tell a lie often enough"

    Quickly and effectively quelling any opposition,
    silencing and firing any government agency employees who dare speak the truth based upon their research and education

    Building up military

    Changing the nation from a country known for protecting the most vulnerable to one that isolates and uses them as cheap labour while cutting funding to international agencies that have long standing relationships in these countries.

    A populous lulled into complacentcy: who does not get concerned about the systamatic erosion of a Canada that supports the most vulnerable at home and abroad

  10. Harper is a liar, and a cheater. All you need to do is examine how he and his Reform gang took over the Progressive Conservative Party to see how he operates.

    There are a lot of Progressive Conservatives out there who would love to see him, and his cronies, hung out to dry.

    I'm one of them.

    1. Really want him gone? Then add your voice to the Depose Harper petition to the Governor General on the Canadian Awareness Network website. Quit whining, get off your ass and o something about,your complaints.


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