Sunday, September 02, 2012

Justin Trudeau and the expected reverse voter migrations

The Cat believes that it is almost certain that Justin Trudeau will run for the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada.

If he does not, his credibility would be severely dented should he wish to become leader at some future date. The party needs him now. The country needs him now. These are calls that any politician cannot simply brush aside, not if he or she is a serious politician, wishing to make a difference to the country.
Justin Trudeau at the Calgary Stampede

Within a week or so of Trudeau`s announcement of his run, I expect opinion polls will show two major changes in the expectation of voters:
1.      A substantial change in the percentage of voters who will indicate their willingness to vote for the Liberal Party in the next election; and
2.      A major reverse migration of voters from the NDP (and to a lesser extent, the Greens) to the LPC.

One solitary polling firm, EKOS, has taken the pulse of the Canadian voters in recent months about who will vote for what party if Trudeau becomes leader of the Liberals, and it showed two things: there is a lack of love for particular parties, and there was a massive migration of voters away from the Liberals to the Dippers.

Another firm (Abacus) also revealed that there would be a significant counter migration in favour of a Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau, with roughly one in three NDP voters switching their votes to the LPC. Many Liberals who voted with their feet to go to other parties or to stay home because they did not like the scandal that engulfed the party, or the three weak leaders (Martin, Ignatieff and Dion), will return to the fold as well.

And that would catapult the Liberals into top place, knocking out the Harper new Tories from that spot, and relegating the Mulcair NDP to third spot.

There is no reason to believe these results will not be duplicated by that polling firm and by other polling firms once Trudeau announces he will run.


  1. so second generation cute silver-spooned celebrity trumps without any discussion of values and policy?
    first let me say harper gives any area of canada the right to seek disaster zone status due to mismanagement.
    then let me predict the libs and ndp will fiddle and spar their way into giving the harp a second "majority" if there is anything left of canada after the next three years of harps "management"
    if they lose a con weighted judiciary, a con stacked senate , conservative bloated bureaucracy and pro con corporate resistance will hold most of the power anyway
    i think harp is "misunderestimated"
    only a radical flowering of political awareness amongst the whole voting population willing to delve intimately into the issues can stop him.
    harper is dark and nasty and determined but the liberal-democrats could run the country well .
    do you think there is enough concern for canada over party to have that happen?
    didn't think so ....which says a lot about justin and mulcar ...and canada in a way.

  2. Keep the faith, Anon! The Liberal Party is licking its self-inflicted wounds, and under the able guidance of Bob Rae is well on the way to a rapid healing. Speak to Liberals in ridings across the country - there is a renaissance taking place, of the spirit. Deep within the Liberal soul, hidden from view for many a year, lies a ferocious love of country, coupled to sincere values which embrace all Canadians, and a primal lust for power.

    That lust has been kindled by Harper's nefarious ways, and especially by his stated desire to terminate the Liberal Party with extreme prejudice.

    We ain't taking that.

    We're organizing, reaching out to new members and supporters, persuading people regenerate the Liberal Party.

    And it is working.

    Harper is serving his last term as prime minister.

    You have that promise from The Cat.
    And all my fellow Liberals.

  3. well cat
    i do wish you the very best
    but please watch that "primal lust for power"
    that's pretty much how harper became harper
    we see only the tip of his shenanigans
    i believe he is deeper and darker than we can hardly imagine
    bilderburg attendee, god knows what transpires in his private meetings with the US the chinese, the koch brothers and on and on
    his best "attribute" politically is the ability to play several levels dirtier than we could ever consider, dirtier than we could accept , dirtier than our backoff point. allowing torture comes to mind.
    threats and bribes.
    shortly you will play fair and he won't.
    "Harper is serving his last term as prime minister."....IF he plays fair
    he will pack a knife to a chessgame
    and a gun to the knife fight
    unfair yes
    but history is written by the winner

    you won't catch him sleeping
    or wake up a majority for that matter
    without ganging up on him
    all of non-con canada is waiting for a liberaldemocrate solution
    then change government from the infighting gangs
    to all independent MPs
    taking care of Canadians
    like sober elders or men of wisdom
    just bringing back a fighting team seems almost childish
    this isn't sport
    it's our country, the future
    elect men and like you say "let them reason together"
    i don't know who at this point is the bigger dreamer
    me or you
    its time i think to morph or mutate into something parliamentary that works
    either that or move


  4. The Liberals under Chretien/Martin were competent neoliberals in the back pocket of corporations. The Reform-Conservatives are incompetent neoliberals in the back pocket of corporations.

    What difference will a new Liberal leader make if the party can't put together a platform that truly helps ordinary Canadians?

  5. I'm not a big fan of the whole "lust for power" thing. Not that the NDP don't want it bad of course, but the Liberal party needs to be careful not to further define themselves as a party that wants to govern rather than a bunch of committed people focussed on a particular set of policies and a philosophy of governing. I don't care about the party's history or it's soul, I care about universal childcare, the centrality of the Charter and sensible fiscal management to take some issues the Liberal party tends to focus on. But I also care about turning around Canada's horrible record on the environment and our disfunctional electoral system which are not things the Liberal party seems to want to talk about as much.

    Maybe Trudeau could change that but I just don't have the faith that Trudeau will automatically be good for the party. He's great but he's untested as a leader and that seems to be what the Liberals have been going for the past couple elections.

    What progressive Canadians need to think about right now as they look towards the next election is how to win it, not how to necessarily how to get the Liberals to win it. We cannot afford to solidify the Conservative argument that they are better at governing by letting them win again. They did not do most of the things that allowed Canada to weather the economic storm of the past few years yet they are taking all the credit for it. Meanwhile they are destroying our reputation around the world, gutting knowledge based decision making and making it harder to make any progress on global warming which is becoming more and more urgent as the ice caps melt faster than expected. A stronger message that the majority of Canadians disagree with this direction would be an NDP win, perhaps as a minority supported by the Liberal party. If the polls are right, and Trudeau would cause a large enough bump in Liberal fortunes to compete with the NDP yet jeopardize the possibility of either of the progressive, federalist parties from defeating the Conservatives then I think it would be a net loss for the country.

    (sorry, this turned into a bit of rant, polite debate is all, I love your blog, I just disagree with your premise here :) )
    - Mark Crowley

  6. Popthestack, I agree with the major thrust of your comment.

    I think that even when the polls move in favour of the Liberals if Trudeau becomes the leader, we will still have a minority government come the next election. Whether the Liberals or the NDP lead the next coalition government, I really hope that one of the major planks agreed upon when the coalition government is formed is the immediate implementation of modified proportional representation (or, if this is too big a first step, the single transferable vote system).

    This will go a long way towards forcing all parties in future to cooperate with other parties rather than rushing off on their own ideological pursuits.

    I also think the next election will most likely be in late 2013 or early 2014, if Justin Trudeau is leader: Harper will not want Trudeau-mania to spread too much before going to the polls and so will set up an excuse to dissolve Parliament and run on the excuse.

  7. We ain't taking that.

    Ya you are. :D


    But because Mulcair is marching to a different drummer, with a different timetable in mind, having Mulcair as the new NDP leader rather than Nathan Cullen means that we will probably have Harper as Prime Minister for the next 7 years and perhaps even 11 years.

    CuriosityCatMarch 21, 2012 11:14 AM
    I notice that Graves of EKOS has voiced support for the cooperation of the LPC & NDP because neither is likely to win a majority of seats in 2015, despite delusional and hubristic beliefs of leadership candidates that they can do it on their own.

    3...7...11?....i think you called it

    Winning means converting conservatives
    Hard to do with either mulcair or justin (unless there is a huge untapped beiber vote i am unaware of )

  9. Anon, my earlier view - one I still stick to - is that Thomas Mulcair cares more for his elevation to prime minister of a majority government than he does for the removal of the Harper new Tories.

    However, Canadian politics has entered a very fluid stage in the past few years, and old truths are dying hard. Our Arab Season is upon us. Jack Layton was a major beneficiary in the last election, the Liberals lost badly as well.

    I believe our voters are looking for new ways, new people, new paths.

    And the old ways and commitments could change dramatically, both in suddenness and in scope, if a shock was administered to the system.

    The selection of Justin Trudeau as leader of the LPC could be just such a game-changing shock. Trudeau brings to the political space one of the most iconic names this country has in its politics.

    When he steps into the ring, the aura of the man who brought home the constitution, who was responsible for the passage of the revolutionary Charter of Rights and Freedoms, who showed one could be a Francophone and stand up to separatist bullying (as he did when the mob stormed the platform he was on), who offered hope to the world of a way for nations to behave that was not just the way fixed for all by a handful of powerful states, who showed Canadians how to give voice to their immense political choices of inclusiveness and just plain old commonsense, steps on to the current policial stage as well.

    Just think a bit about it. In one corner we have a man who is contemptuous of parliamentary ways, indifferent to a vision of Canada that shows it playing a significant and positive role in the world, willing to use any type of political means to further his own ends. In the other corner is the man who bears the mantle of an icon who made Canada greater than its political weight deserved.

    What a comparision!

    This could break many a logjam in this country of ours.

    So don't be too keen to project the past into the future without considering the randomness of matters.

  10. In the other corner is the man who bears the mantle of an icon who made Canada greater than its political weight deserved.

    In other words: "And then He turned to His disciples and said, 'take this all of you and drink of it, this is My blood, the blood of the everlasting covenant."

    Wow, someone has a Messiah complex, lol. :D

  11. Grant, framing the younger Trudeau as a 'messiah' is straight out of the Harper Tories / Republican rightwing handbook: it is meant to be dismissive of a forty year old man who chose to run as an MP instead of doing something else; who had a father who won admiration on the local and world stage; who might wish to lead a party now in bad shape because he sees this as his duty.

    Stick a lable on him and dismiss him.

    It's not that easy.

    PET represented something much more beneficial to Canada than Harper does, despite Harper's many years as prime minister so far.

    That is the comparison that voters will be looking at if Justin runs for leader and an election is held.

    And no matter what lables the Tories try, Harper comes off second best in such a comparison.

  12. That is the comparison that voters will be looking at if Justin runs for leader and an election is held.

    Oh man I hope so.

  13. Grant, framing the younger Trudeau as a 'messiah' is straight out of the Harper Tories / Republican rightwing handbook

    In the other corner is the man who bears the mantle of an icon who made Canada greater than its political weight deserved.

    The book that you speak of is your own.


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