Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Romney threat to Obama: The Middle Class vote

This poll shows that despite recent Romney ‘gaffes’(as defined by anti-Romney media and some Republicans), Romney is holding a lead over Obama when it comes to the middle class, who constitute 54% of Americans:

Overall, Obama leads Romney by just 3 points on the ballot (50 percent to 47 percent) – which before we rounded up, is actually a 2.6 point lead and only up a half-a-percentage point from the 2.1 point lead for Obama in our last Battleground poll in early August.  

In our latest POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll with middle-class families, which comprise about 54 percent of the total American electorate and usually split in their vote behavior between Republicans and Democrats, Romney holds a 14-point advantage (55 percent to 41 percent).  

Middle-class families are more inclined to believe the country is on the wrong track (34 percent right direction, 62 percent wrong track), are more likely to hold an unfavorable view of Obama (48 percent favorable, 51 percent unfavorable), and hold a more favorable view of Romney (51 percent favorable, 44 percent unfavorable) and Paul Ryan (46 percent favorable, 35 percent unfavorable) than the overall electorate.  

These middle-class families also hold a majority disapproval rating on the job Obama is doing as president (45 percent approve, 54 percent disapprove), and turn even more negative toward  Obama on specific areas; the economy 56 percent disapprove; spending 61 percent disapprove; taxes, 53 percent disapprove; Medicare 48 percent disapprove; and even foreign policy 50 percent disapprove. 

This is not good news for Obama when the economy is still mired in stasis-ville.
He needs to break out soon, or be a one-term president.


  1. I think it's a little strange to base your assessment on a single poll. Perhaps you should check out www.realclearpolitics.com for a view of a number of polls or http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ for a bit more discussion about polling biases and statistical variations and predictions.

    You may be right, but I'm not so sure you have enough information to make the definitive statement you're making.

  2. My statement is that the poll shows Romney with a sizeable (12%) lead over Obama in middle class respondents to this poll. One poll does not a summer make. But there are 5 or so weeks to go, the economy is still bumping along the bottom with more bad news coming in the next month about slow downs in China and the EU; Romney is gaining a bit of traction over the foreign policy issues; and his 'gaffes'might turn out to be simply saying to his rich donors what half of the voters probably think.

    Agreed - the battleground states are the key.

    And 5 weeks is an eternity in an election campaign.

    The one man who can change the whole election is the Israeli PM.

  3. I was reacting to your last statement, which is rather definitive, that Obama "needs to break out soon, or be a one-term president."

    I still think that relying on this one poll to support that statement is presumptive at best.

    As for the Israeli PM, if he launches an attack on Iran in October, then yes that might have an impact. But it remains to be seen what that would be; the desire for another war in the middle east isn't exactly strong in the US at this point.

    But if instead he simply rattles the sabre, or rather yanks the chain, the reaction could be swift and quite the opposite. Americans support Israel, but would likely not take to kindly if they felt their foreign policy decisions were being dictated by an outsider. Netanyahu has veered a bit close to that line in recent weeks.

    Obama's statement the other day that if Mister Romney wants to start a new mideast war, he should just come out and say it (paraphrased but it was about that direct) is a message that takes a step in the direction of that argument.


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