Wednesday, October 03, 2012

Justin Trudeau: Will Toronto go Liberal? Poll says Yes

A Forum poll taken this past weekend (before Trudeau confirmed he is running for leadership of the Liberal Party), shows a huge shift in votes in Toronto, the major city of battleground Ontario:
Toronto 2015 ridings

With Trudeau as their leader, the Liberals would claim 40 per cent of the vote in Toronto if an election were held today, thanks to a surge in support from backers of the NDP, according to a Forum Research poll released first to CP24 on Monday.

The lion’s share of the votes for a Trudeau-led Liberal Party of Canada would come from current NDP supporters, as 30 per cent of respondents who identified themselves as NDP boosters said they would switch allegiances to back the son of former prime minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau.

“We may have Truedeaumania all over again if Justin is running,” Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff told CP24. “This is the age of the brand and you can’t beat the Trudeau brand.”

In second place, the Conservatives would claim 30 per cent of the vote in Toronto, while the NDP would finish third with 23 per cent, according to the poll.

This latest poll confirms earlier ones that have suggested there will be a large migration of voters away from the NDP towards the LPC if Trudeau becomes leader.

Why is this happening?

Methinks the Orange Surge was partly due to disgust with the state of politics in Ottawa, with the degradation of our public dialogue under six years of Harper, and a deep desire to return civility to our public spaces.

This take seems to agree with the views of some unnamed Trudeau advisors:

A lot of commentators are unhappy about the policy vacuum at the heart of Trudeau’s candidacy. But what people want from Justin is not policy, but something else.

“The positive vibe that people have about him shows they’re not satisfied with what they have in leadership and they’re hoping for something more,” said a key adviser. “In that sense, it has nothing to do with him and his personal attributes other than a kind of positive feeling they attribute to him. And our job, and his job, is to work our collective arses off to show people that he can be about something more.”

The race has started.

My guess is the next election will be towards the end of next year or early in 2014. Harper will not want Trudeaumania to really settle in …

1 comment :

  1. And just supposing that these poll numbers stick for a moment (they won't, but just suppose) that means the Conservatives will very likely win. With our electoral system, being *that close* is exactly the same as not running at all, really. And if Liberals are at 30% and Conservatives are at 30%, my bet is that Conservatives win on GOTV. After all, they seem to be able to add voters, and take voters away, legalities be damned.

    But the poll won't stay exactly like that. No, NDP and Liberals will trade many votes back and forth, back and forth, where they land is anyone's guess. The Conservatives on the other hand, will remain at 30%.

    We desperately need to Cooperate, and we desperately need the voters to tell the Liberals and NDP, and the Greens, to do so!


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