Tuesday, October 09, 2012

Latest Daily Kos PPP Poll – Obama does not do well

A Public Policy Polling poll of 1,300 likely voters over the period October 4 to 7 has a wealth of results, with some interesting changes in the standings nationally of Obama and Romney since the gamechanging first debate:


Overall, Mitt Romney now leads Obama by 4%, with Obama abead by 14% amongst women and Romney by 12% among men; and, most significantly, Romney leading amongst independents and older voters:


The polling trend from Thursday to Sunday shows the decline in Obama’s numbers, and the change in swing states, even with the uptick from the employment figures on Friday:



Obama’s favourable numbers now beat his favourable ones, nationally and in independents. 

However, Romney’s favourables have an 11 point edge over his unfavourability rating.

Worse still, a whopping 56% think America is on the wrong tack, as against only 39% who think the country is on the right track.

The coming debate between the vice presidential candidates now becomes even more important.

3 comments :

  1. Latest Gallop poll:

    By a margin of 38 percent to 34 percent, registered voters now say that Romney is more likely than Obama to be effective in Washington.

    The two candidates are now essentially tied when voters are asked whether they are tough enough and smart enough for the job, whether they have the right values, and whether they will protect American jobs. Obama had previously led Romney on these questions.

    Obama is still viewed as more likeable, more eloquent and more empathetic than Romney by wide margins.

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  2. Politico article today deals with enthusiasm (Dems lower than Repubs) and intentions to vote:

    The percentages among key Democratic constituencies who say they are extremely likely to vote should cause concern in Chicago: While 82 percent of whites (who break for Romney by a 15-point margin) say they’re “extremely likely” to vote, only 71 percent of African-Americans and 70 percent of Latinos do. And just 68 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds, another key Obama constituency, put themselves in the “extremely likely” to vote category.

    The electorate is deeply divided and polarized, which makes 2012 look increasingly like a base election. Whoever runs up their vote count among their core supporters is likely to prevail, which is why these numbers are so significant.

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82122.html#ixzz28pYhl1vf

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  3. Wed Oct 10:

    "It's possible, even reasonable, to quibble with the likely voter sample of any individual poll, but the overall direction of the surveys released since the debate is unmistakable: They all suggest that in that debate, Romney changed a critical dynamic in the race," CNN Senior Political Analyst and National Journal Editorial Director Ron Brownstein said.
    "Obama's widened lead in September depended in part on voters who were somewhat dissatisfied with his performance but were sticking with him because they did not view Romney as a viable alternative -- largely because they didn't believe he understood or cared about people like them," Brownstein added.
    "What's clear is that at the first debate Romney crossed the threshold for an important share of those voters, who now do see him as a reasonable alternative to Obama," he added.

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