Friday, October 05, 2012

Post debate bounce for The Mitt

Seems so. His favourability rating is up and with about 70 million people watching him take President Obama behind the woodshed and whack him, more people know him.

If, as I expect, he fights Obama do a draw or even a win in the foreign policy debate, he will have narrowed the odds on becoming president:

As I discussed last Sunday, Obama's favorability ratings are actually historically low for a person to get elected president. In fact, no president in CBS News/New York Times, Gallup or NBC/Wall Street Journal data has ever been elected with a net favorability as low as his.

The issue has been that Mitt Romney's favorability has been even lower. Wednesday night's debate was seen by nearly 70 million people. After a strong performance, the Ipsos data has Romney gaining 10 points in net favorability. A good portion of that is Republicans coming back home. Still, if Romney can be seen as a viable alternative to the president among at least 50% of the electorate, he's at least in the ball game. Wednesday night helped him down that path.

Let’s see what the next few days’worth of polls show us.

The Obama campaign had better insist that Obama do his homework before the next two debates, or he runs the risk of losing those Walmart Moms he is relying on to push him into the White House next year. I have the feeling that Romney has hurt Obama on foreign policy with his recent attacks, and will continue to do so until election day.
And that would leave the economy as THE issue.


  1. C Decoder report on Sunday:

    Rasmussen national survey out at week’s end shows a shift from Obama 49-47 to Romney 49-47.

    “This is a small shift that’s significant in a close race,” pollster Scott Rasmussen told the New York Post. “Both candidates have a stable base, and the race is close. Barring something that happens in the real world, it’s likely to remain close.”

    “Bounces are called bounces because they don’t last forever,” Mr. Rasmussen says. “We don’t know if this will disappear, or if they will build on it, or what other news will do to the race.”

    The latest Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll shows President Obama's lead dropping from five points (48-43) to just two points (46-44). In Gallup’s daily tracking poll, Romney picked up two points, putting him within three points of Obama (46-49). The RealClearPolitics polling average (as of Saturday) has Obama ahead by just 1.4 points.

    State polls are instructive as well.

    In Wisconsin, the Public Policy Polling organization finds “a big debate bump for Mitt Romney.” Two weeks ago he trailed Obama by 7 points there, 52-45. Now he's pulled to within two points, with Obama's lead now just 49-47.

    “Romney's image has seen significant improvement over the last couple weeks with 49 percent of voters now expressing a positive opinion of him to 48 percent with a negative one,” PPP reported Saturday. “That's up a net 8 points from a 44-51 spread on our last poll.”

    Although Obama hung on to his 9-point lead among independent voters in Wisconsin, according to PPP, there's also been “a big uptick in Republican enthusiasm about the election.”

    In Colorado – another key state – the University of Denver reported Sunday that Obama continues to hold the lead among likely voters there – 47-43 percent, including 48-31 among independents.

    But there was good news for Romney in Colorado as well: 38 percent of likely voters said their impression of Romney is improving, while just 18 percent felt the same way about Obama.

  2. Latest Gallup polls on who won the first debate;

    Across all of the various debate-reaction polls Gallup has conducted, Romney's 52-point win is the largest Gallup has measured. The prior largest margin was 42 points for Bill Clinton over George H.W. Bush in the 1992 town hall debate.

    Romney's debate performance is also notable from the standpoint that U.S. debate watchers judged Obama the winner of all three 2008 debates with John McCain.


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