Sunday, October 21, 2012

Will Romney win the "jobs" argument and therefore Pennsylvania?

This Republican analysis thinks so:

Our latest Pennsylvania poll conducted 10/11-10/13 and released by the Washington Examiner October 18th shows Mitt Romney has taken the lead over President Obama by a 49-45 margin.  This automated poll, conducted with 1,376 likely voters, was conducted on behalf of the Republican State Committee of Pennsylvania, and released publicly by the Pa GOP shortly thereafter...

The fact of the matter is that Mitt Romney is winning Pennsylvania because he is winning the “jobs” argument.   Every statewide poll we have done the past three years shows Pennsylvanians want the economy fixed.  According to our latest polls, the economy continues to be cited as the most important problem facing the Commonwealth– mentioned by nearly fifty percent and far ahead of any other issue...

Among Keystone State voters in our poll who say the economy and job creation is the most important issue that will influence their vote, voters prefer Romney over Obama by a 54% to 40% margin.  This is clear evidence Romney is winning the jobs argument...



Other recent polling firms showing Obama with huge leads in Pa have systematically under sampled Republicans by an average of 5 to 8 points. This is a huge miscalculation in sampling error especially in a year where GOP enthusiasm is especially high and Republican voters are repeatedly telling pollsters they will vote for Romney by margins of 95-5.  Our ratio of Republicans to Democrats surveyed in all our Pa polls has been 48D-42R, a good road map for turnout and one that nationally renowned experts like Michal Barone have argued makes sense.  And if the recent news is to believed showing Pa Democrats have failed to hit their goals for absentee ballot requests and new registrations, this could be the first tactical evidence that Mitt Romney is ready to join former President George Bush “41” as the most recent GOP presidential candidate to win the Keystone State.

The RealClearPolitics summary of poll results in that state show Obama ahead by sizeable margins:



But the RealClear results as of today show a tie nationally:


If Romney does win the 20 electoral votes of Pennsylvania, he will be the next president.

And the burden of putting more Americans to work will rest upon him; however, whoever is next president will have a much easier task than Obama has had, given the slow emergence from the deep recession, and the length of the president's term of office.

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