Monday, December 30, 2013

From My Quotes Cupboard – China’s social threat

The real social threat to China’s stability is demographic. As a result of the One-Child policy introduced in 1979, China by 2030 will have a significantly more elderly population than its comparably large neighbour India. The share of the population aged sixty-five and over will be 16 per sent, compared to 5 per cent in 1980. And the gender imbalance in provinces like Anhui, Hainan, Guangdong and Jiangxi is already quite without parallel in a modern society, with between 30 and 38 per cent more males than females. The next Chinese revolution, if there is going to be one, will be led by frustrated bachelors. But history suggests that young men without women are as likely to embrace radical nationalism as revolution.



Civilization: The West and the Rest, by Niall Ferguson, The Penguin Press, 2011

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1 comment :

  1. I suspect you're off the mark again, Cat, as you misjudged the anti-Morsi counter-revolution by the Egyptian military. China's "social threat" was recently discussed by one of that country's top economists. I wrote about this some months ago. He said the dilemma was that China needed a technology and entrepreneurial class that required a world-class standard of living. The country, however, could provide that to a small minority because the planet simply cannot supply the resources needed to make that universally available. Hence, he concluded, China's and India's challenge would be to find a means to structure their societies to accommodate an island of the affluent floating on a sea of poverty. That will be the source of unrest. That is why the Chinese suppressed coverage of the Arab Spring.

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