Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Quebec election: 20 days and 5%

Premier Marois' Lobster Strategy
What a difference a campaign can make!

Just four weeks ago, it seemed the Marois-led PQ juggernaut was a shoo-in for a majority government in the province of Quebec, and now it seems the wheels have fallen off the machine, as pollster Three Hundred Eight illustrates.

In less than 20 days Premier Marois has through her ill-advised lack of discipline moved the needle from a majority government to being a government clutching a pink slip in its sweaty  hands, as its core Francophone constituency moves away:

Down 5% over 20 days in this core supporter group (which really means a loss of 1 in 9 - 5% / 45% - or 11% - a very significant drop!), the PQ need look no further than to its own leaders. That group decided that they could use the Lobster Trap trick to suck Quebecers into voting for a majority PQ government which would then spend millions of taxpayer dollars holding a 12-month or longer White Paper exercise that – as some of its senior leaders are on record as saying – will be an attempt to turn up the heat so that the Lobster ends up immersed in boiling-independence waters without realizing it.

Perhaps Quebec voters are paying too much attention, eh? Perhaps they are listening when Marois says she wants her cake (and wants to eat it, too); that the election is not about a referendum (but her majority government will act as if it was by launching a long education campaign, with senior PQ members expected by the Premier to be actively involved in selling the merits of independence, as she said during the campaign).

And perhaps Quebecers feel there are more important things that its government should be concentrating on, rather than trying to heat the independence-waters.

Still think a campaign does not really matter?

Think again.

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