Sunday, May 18, 2014

Ontario election: Shades of the 2015 Harper-Trudeau battle?

When it comes to elections in Canada, with its relatively low voting rates, age matters. Older folks vote with their feet, all the way to the polling stations, while younger folks go about their busy lives, voicing discontent but not doing anything about it.

Federally, the Stephen Harper new Conservatives have made consistent inroads into the demographics that vote – they have solid ties to older Canadians. The NDP, under Layton and also the more volcanic Mulcair, appeal to younger voters, as do the Liberals.

What’s happening in the June 2014 provincial election in our biggest province gives us clues to what will happen come the late 2014-early 2015 election: the Tories holding a majority of the seniors, with the Liberals tugging at their former hold on the Boomers, as this EKOS graph shows:




While some 40% of voters just don’t bother to vote, none of the three federal parties has to date shown meaningful inroads into that non-voting segment sufficient to give anyone comfort that more will actually bother to vote come 2015.

So right now the battle in the federal election later this year (or, at the latest, early next year), will be won by the party that manages to persuade more older Canadians to visit the polling stations and vote for them.


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