Saturday, May 16, 2015

Latest poll: Opposition 206 seats, Harper Conservatives 131 seats

Prime Minister Mulcair?
A logjam in our politics has been broken by a string of elections over the past two years. Things that were unheard of before, now are reality. Parties that conventional wisdom assumed could not widen their base throughout the country, suddenly are sending dynasties to the trash heap.

And based on this week’s snapshot Forum poll, we are headed for a new government come October, with the old Tory one unable to win a confidence vote:

"It is clear the Notley victory in Alberta has shaken up the federal political scene,'' Bozinoff said in a statement.
"Conservatives (and Liberals), who used to park their disaffected votes with the Greens have now been given 'permission' to vote for the NDP if they are unhappy with their own party, and it appears many of them are," Bozinoff added.
In Ontario, one of the anticipated battleground provinces for October's vote, the Conservatives have a slight lead with 36 per cent support, compared to the Liberals at 34 per cent and the NDP at 26 per cent.

If these results are projected up to seats in a 338-seat House of Commons, the Conservatives would capture a minority with 131 seats. The NDP would remain the official opposition with 111 seats and the Liberals would see 95 seats, Forum says. 

If those results hold through the election, and the parties win roughly those same numbers of seats, then we will have an NDP government headed by Prime Minister Thomas Mulcair, supported in a vote of confidence by the Liberal Party.

And Stephen Harper can then clear out his desk and retire, leaving the Tories to decide who should replace him.

The country will benefit from a fresh government in Ottawa.


  1. The NDP is a bit conservative for my taste but OK fine ; it will be an improvement.

  2. John, it the above seat result happened, the Conservatives would have first crack at forming a government, and seek the confidence of the House. If the Liberal Party sided with the Conservative minority government and voted to support it in power again, I for one would tear up my Liberal Party membership card. And many others, I believe, would do the same. So a change of government should happen.


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