The most significant statistic in the latest EKOS snapshot of Canadian politics is that the “new” Conservatives lead by PM Stephen Harper have now plunged to a level in anticipated support which is 30% below the votes they garnered in the May 2011 election:
You can find the EKOS report through the reference in this Huffingtonpost article.
The Tories are 12 percent lower in the latest poll than they were on election day 2011. That's a 30% plunge in total votes!
Now ask yourself: You are in early July with an election in October. Almost 1 in 3 of your party’s elected MPs is not running for re-election in the October election, thus diminishing the power of incumbency. Your front bench in Parliament has been obliterated. Your party election spokesman is tripping over his own tongue with his unconvincing responses to questions about tawdry and perhaps illegal ads your party has put out. Your leader looks wooden, avoids journalists, takes only limited, previously-submitted questions when he does face the press, no longer has Parliament to voice his views, and seems to have no policy ideas for the coming election except a stay-the-course-elect-me-because-the-world-is-a-fearful-place-and-I-am-the-only-one-who-can-keep-the-monsters-at-bay.
Given these events and facts, just how motivated do you think you would be as a Conservative Party supporter, to work your butt off to re-elect your government?
Or would you say Yes to any telephoned request you get from your party, but make sure that you either find something else to do on election day (trim your toenails or watch all the Godfather movies) or vote for change if you do go into the polling booth?
After all, hundreds of thousands of your Conservative Party fellow members did just that during the recent Alberta election.
One thing is becoming clearer each day: Stephen Harper will not be PM of Canada again, and perhaps will quit as an MP.