Friday, September 11, 2015

Battleground Ontario is moving into Liberal camp says Nanos

The kiss of death?
The latest Nanos poll for CTV shows a three way split between the LPC, CPC and NDP.  However, the Liberal grip on their heartland of Atlantic Canada remains firm; while the NDP has a clear majority in Quebec.

The key battleground is now the biggest province, Ontario.

Here’s the Nanos result (you can get the full Nanos report from the link to their site in the article):

Liberals surge in Otarion, while NDP sinks


Note two things about these Ontario results.

First the Conservatives are fairly far behind the trending Liberals, who have shaken off the Tories and are cementing a firm lead amongst voters there.  There are many competitive seats here, and the Liberals will win many of them. Ontario will put Justin into 24 Sussex Drive as prime minister.

As for the NDP, note the sharp decline from earlier in the month. Mulcair’s roll of the dice with his read my lips: no deficits, has hurt the NDP in Ontario, where a steady hand on the economic tiller is the sine qua non of support for a political leader.

Harper is sinking and will lose because of his ten year record of narrowness, lack of vision, and ultra partisanship. Canadians are rejecting not just Harper in this election, but the Conservative style of politicking and governance. This rejection is final and irrevocable. Canadians have decided that the Harper ‘new’ Conservative way is not for them. Period.

Mulcair was doing well, but the harm was swift and deep: one deep cut, when he scuttled too far right with his no deficits pledge, and failed to back it up with a detailed explanation – including numbers – of what he would cut to ensure no deficits, and what he would not cut. His failure to redline non-cuttable areas is going to cost him the office of prime minister.


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