Saturday, September 19, 2015

Debate confirms that Canada will have a new government on October 20

Here’s the Nanos latest poll, showing support at various times over the past 12 months:

Where have the polls been? Check the listing of all 2015 polls at Poll Tracker for this.  Run  your eye down the percentages favouring the Conservatives in these 109 polls – can you spot any that put them over 34%? You can count them on half of one hand.

So what is the meaning of the debate and these 109 polls?

Very simply, the two debates have confirmed that there is less than a snowball’s hope in hell for Harper to survive as prime minister after October 19. The only way the Conservatives can survive a vote of confidence is if they win a majority of seats in the House (that’s 170 seats, by the way). And to win a majority, Harper’s ‘new’ Conservatives have to win between 37% and 40% of votes cast on election day:

Due to Canada’s first-past-the post electoral system, a politician can become prime minister with a mere 34 per cent of the vote – and garner a majority with just 38 per cent (the Conservatives won a majority in 2011 with less than 40 per cent).

Most likely next Prime Minister?
To win a majority, Harper has to hold his seats in Ontario and gain more, but his chances are low, based on recent polls:
Several factors work for the Liberals in the 905, says Toronto-based political strategist John Duffy, a well-known party loyalist and consultant on previous campaigns. Trudeau’s nascent fiscal policies and his pledge to run deficits for three years, while spending $125 billion on new infrastructure projects, should help win over suburban Toronto voters, he says.
Trudeau’s spending promise “resonates very well in that part of the country, which needs more urban infrastructure” such as roads and railways, to improve commuter times, Duffy says.

With just over a month left in this election, the chances are very, very high that we are going to see a new government take power and Harper replaced as prime minister. There will be the change that more than 60% of Canadians have repeatedly said they want.

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