Thursday, September 10, 2015

Does the Mansbridge Bump mean Justin Trudeau will be prime minister on October 20?

The chickens have spoken
Peter Mansbridge, the jovial senior journalist of CBC, held three interviews with Harper, Mulcair and Trudeau.

Google has revealed the results of searches on google of the three men, during each such interview.

Here’s the graph:

Two things about the number of searches.

First, more people (by a large factor) googled Trudeau than either of the other two men.

Secondly, Trudeau even got pretty good google search results during the Mulcair interview.

What does this mean?

The ancient Romans used to try to divine the future by having the entrails of chickens read by experts, a practice known as haruspicy. The fellow doing the entrail reading was known as the haruspices:

The continuity of the Etruscan tradition among the Romans is indicated by several ancient literary sources, perhaps most famously in the incident related by Suetonius[4] in which a haruspex named Spurinna warned Julius Caesar to beware the Ides of March.

So what would an augur (an ancient Roman soothsayer) say about the entrails of the google searches (aka chicken entrails, to the informed)? The author would examine the entrails when the chicken was slaughtered, to determine what would happen to the emperor.

An augur given the entrails of the google searches, would note the significance of the Mansbridge Bump. Clearly, the Mansbridge interviews had sparked the interest of many people who were viewing them. This would portend an actively involved segment of voters, willing to view the three interviews in order to assess the worthiness of the three individuals striving to become the modern equivalent of the emperor (prime minister of Canada). This portends that voters are engaged now, at the midpoint of the election campaign.

The augur would be in a position to gauge the interest of voters in the individuals: the more the quest for knowledge about each of the candidates, the higher the interest. The level of interest would be an indicator of the probability of that individual becoming emperor.

Based on the high peak of the Trudeau curve, the augur would conclude that the next emperor would be Justin Trudeau.

Based on the peak of inquiry into Trudeau during the Mulcair interview, the augur would conclude that a weighing of these two candidates was taking place.

These two portents, taken together, would reinforce the inescapable conclusion of the augur: Justin Trudeau is the one destined to wear the mantle of emperor.

The chickens have spoken.

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