Sunday, September 06, 2015

Election 2015: X marks the spot



Here’s my current expectation of the possible seat wins around one week before the October 19 election. I’ve added an X - to mark the right hand border of my forecast - to the CBC/308 instructive Poll Tracker chart:

X marks my spot for positions one week before the election on October 19


And why the change to party fortunes, with the Conservatives under tone-deaf Stephen Harper gently subsiding into what will be a crushing rejection the polls, the NDP declining after reaching its peak, and the Liberals resurgent?

Because the Liberal Party is addressing the core issue of the voters: having a plan and a commitment to a plan that deals with the economy in troubled times, and creates jobs. This chart shows this clearly:



EKOS chart of the Defict versus Stimulus effect


We can expect Mulcair’s NDP to try to catchup by playing me-too on infrastructure spending, while the Tories under Harper continue to flail around with scripted talking points blabber.

Irony:



And Harper, the Deficit King of Canada, taunted Justin Trudeau at a campaign meeting with his fingers mockingly showing the ‘teeny little’ deficits that Trudeau was prepared to run in order to launch his job-creating, wealth-boosting $125 billion infrastructure program. Yet Harper has just come off 6 deficits in a row! Here’s the facts:


After producing a surplus in 2007-08 of $9.6 billion, the Harper government delivered a deficit of $5.8 billion in 2008-09 during the global recession.
In subsequent years, his Conservative governments generated shortfalls of $55.6 billion in 2009-10; $33.4 billion in 2010-11; $26.3 billion in 2011-12; $18.4 billion for 2012-13; and $5.2 billion for 2013-14.
To summarize, Harper-led governments ran a string of six straight deficits between 2008-09 and 2013-14.


Pot calling possible kettle black, eh?



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