Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Latest changes since September 15 in this fascinating article

You cannot take your eyes off the poll results with the race in the 2015 Canadian election so close!  Here’s the graph for the change since September 15:

And here’s a quick summary of where the action is (my underlining):

Only 11 seats separate the three main political parties, according to the latest seat projection by the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy (LISPOP), making the 42nd federal election look like one of the closest in in Canadian history.

And one of the most volatile regions is also the country’s most vote-rich: Ontario.

In Ontario, there clearly has been a weakening of the NDP to the Liberals while the Conservatives are basically the same,” Barry Kay, a politics professor at Wilfrid Laurier University said during an interview Tuesday.

The Conservatives had 33 per cent support in Ontario on June 25 when Kay measured an aggregate of polls from earlier that month. Their support hasn’t budged. The NDP, however, dropped from 34 per cent support to 25 per cent, while the Liberals went from 28 per cent to 36 per cent over those three months.

Likewise, the Liberals are projected to win 20 more seats than three months ago, moving from 86 to 106. The NDP moved from 130 to 117. The Conservatives, in those three months, barely moved, going down slightly from 119 to 116.

“We’ve never seen a three-way race like this in Canadian history,” Kay said. “At the moment, who comes first, second, or third, is going to hang very much on late ridings.”

So if you think you will know who will lead Canada as PM on the night of October 19, forgeddabout it: you are in for an all-nighter. Time to organize the gang to get together for a BBQ with plenty of soft drinks to celebrate each and every win of your favourite party.

This one is going down in the history books, and you will tell generations to come: It was a dark and stormy night, and I was there, as the votes came in …

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