Monday, September 21, 2015

Liberals edge out NDP as most favoured party for the first time

IPSOS poll released today shows that for the first time in this election, Trudeau’s Liberal Party is now favoured by more voters than those thinking of voting for Mulcair’s NDP:

With just four weeks to go before Canadians choose their next prime minister, burgeoning Liberal support in Ontario has pushed party support past the NDP for the first time in the campaign, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News.

Approximately 33 per cent of Canadians prefer the Liberal Party, according to the poll – three percentage points ahead of the NDP, and six points ahead of the Conservatives.

It’s the first time since the campaign began that the NDP hasn’t been the most popular party. And the Liberals’ gains have largely been driven by growing support in Ontario, according to Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos.

And here’s the IPSOS trend lines showing the slow but steady march of the Liberals to the top over the past four and half months:

Note that the LPC is pulling voters from the NDP in Ontario:

And most of the Liberal gains over the last week have come at the expense of the NDP, not the Conservatives.

And the key result is the size of the Liberal lead in Ontario: 41% (a solid 9% more than the Conservatives at 32%), and a whopping 17% over the NDP’s 24%.

Ominously for the Harper Conservatives, those voters who want a change of government have crossed the very, very dangerous line of 70%:

The desire for change remains strong with 71 per cent of respondents saying it’s “time for another federal party to take over” compared with just 29 per cent who say the “Harper government has done a good job and deserves re-election.”

Justin Trudeau’s forthright and vocal participation in the second debate helped contribute to the increase in Liberal support, reports IPSOS.

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