Sunday, September 20, 2015

Post-debate poll: Liberals swamping Conservatives in Ontario 41% to 31%

Stephen Harper has to move the needle substantially if he wants to retain his job as prime minister.

He needs to increase his support amongst voters by between 15% and 25%, to move it up from the low nationwide 32% or so, to majority-seat territory of 37% to 40%.

The second debate was a Trudeau win, and the shift in battleground Ontario continues apace, according to the latest Forum poll:

The federal Liberals appear to have a gained a foothold in Toronto and the GTA, with 41 per cent of voters saying they’ve decided on — or are leaning toward — the party, a new poll by Forum Research finds.

Thirty-one per cent of 1,183 respondents in the 416 and 905 regions polled Sept. 16 and 17 said they’ll vote for or are inclined toward the Conservatives, and 24 per cent said they favoured the NDP.

Trudeau’s Liberals are doing well in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) which historically has been fertile soil for the Conservatives:

Both the Liberals (43%) and Conservatives (33%) do better in the surrounding GTA than in Toronto (38% and 26%, respectively), while the NDP is more popular in Toronto (31%) than in the suburb (20%).

Mulcair’s disasterous read my lips: no deficits, added to his skimpy action plan, has knocked out a lot of support of Ontarians, most of whom want change on October 19. 

There is a steady drift towards the centrist Liberals, away from both the Conservatives and NDP. 

I believe this drift will continue, and accelerate in the last two weeks of the campaign.



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