|Norpath The Primary Model Guru|
The Primary Model forecasts an 87% certain Trump win in two weeks time:
The prediction formula of the Primary Model, as shown in Table 4, leads to this forecast: In the match-up between the Republican and Democratic primary winners, Donald Trump will defeat Hillary Clinton with 52.5% of the two-party popular vote, with her getting 47.5%.[i]It is 87-percent certain that Trump, not Clinton, will be the next President.Trump benefits from a swing of the electoral pendulum to the Republican side in 2016 and his superior performance in early primaries. While Trump won the Republican primaries in both New Hampshire and South Carolina Hillary Clinton split the Democratic primaries in those states with Bernie Sanders.
So, Hillary, don’t start measuring the Oval Office for curtains just yet!