Monday, June 05, 2017

UK Election - my forecast? A new government lead by Labour's Corbyn as MP

Now's a good time to stick my neck out and forecast that come June 8, PM May will be booted out of power and replaced shortly thereafter by a new Labour government, with Corbyn as Prime Minister.

Here's the latest Yougov forecast, which shows May's Tories at 310 votes (16 shy of the majority of 326 needed):

Yougov is trying a brand new and unique polling methodology - we will see within 3 days if their new method beats those used by others.

Note that the new Labout Government would need to be supported by an agreement by the SNP and by the LibDems to reach the 326 majority figure; if Northern Ireland's 18 seats also supports Labour (and LibDem does not), this also works.

If my forecast is correct, May will soon be out as leader of the Tories; a second referendum on Brexit with a choice between staying in the EU or leaving with the Brexit negotiated divorce terms; Labour will be forced to allow free votes in Parliament over the Brexit terms (many are not happy with Corbyn's stance); and UK politics will be shaken up as seldom before....

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